Global Axioms

5000 yrs in 90 seconds

2011-07-24T17:42:00.000-04:00

This is a visual whirlwind of geopolitical struggle in the Middle East during the last 5000 years. Helps put today's regional events in historical context.

How to stimulate the economy? Decrease average penis size

2011-07-23T08:51:00.001-04:00

Photo: iStockphoto

Shakespeare once said that "the fault ...was not in our stars, but in ourselves" - in our pants to be precise.

This paper by a Finnish doctoral student looks at the correlation between penis size and economic growth. I'll bite my tongue and let you decide.

A Dangerous Tie

2011-05-25T15:29:00.001-04:00

A brief examination of a potential new axis in the Middle East

True or False: Turkey's central foreign policy of pacifism within and beyond its borders is potentially the strongest reason WWIII won't happen sooner than later, or rather, that it hasn't happened yet. This is not to say it would not consider forceful policies via proxy conflicts to secure vital geopolitical interests, seen from a purely realist bent. And with the beating heart of Egypt seeming to wake people of the region up from a decades-long coma it comes as no surprise that major diplomatic revisions were drawn up by the mighty US of A, albeit two eons late. A recent massive propaganda campaign accompanying the revisions has addressed the Arab world through a determining speech by Obama on May 23 that makes clear as day the importance of current Middle East events to global politics. A truly historic earthquake that has reverberated far beyond its epicentre in Tunisia in January of 2011 has ignited public awakening in Arab populations and beyond, sending chills through the spines of Western-backed regimes in the ME (n.b. now openly stated as such on Western media channels). Shockwaves are felt all along the shores of the Mediterrean, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Even as far west as Mauritania and Spain, through Italy and eastward as far as Pakistan, social aftershocks have rattled many previously tight-lipped societies around the world. Still, in the midst of political turmoil across the wider region, one danger Israel and its main ally may consider apocalyptic remains the threat of a hypothetical Turkey-Iran-Egypt (TIE) alliance that could form or be under formation under their very noses. Such a major shift in the balance of power in the region would present a political nightmare for Netanyahu’s volatile nation-state. With each new war, and with NATO and Europe now considering the expansion of military intervention to Syria as well as Sudan, the risk continues to increase of major international warfare that might become inevitable if major global powers react based on their interests to spark chain-reactions of joint and unilateral declarations of war.

Currently a TIE partnership is not close to feasible even internally since Turkey has by far the most to lose in the relationship; a stable and decidedly moderate domestic situation and a growing international presence means it has little to no direct incentive to stir trouble. Whether or not Turkey’s policies are self-serving or genuinely based on ushering in a true Golden Age for the Turkish people and its civilization they have successfully managed to develop a ‘clean’ image and a perception among a wider international community of a Turkey as a neutral regional power well on its way to integrate itself into the elite competition of global politics. With control over one of the important marine trade routes of the world connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterrean, hence Russia to Europe to Africa, a modern Turkey is unlikely to taste any fruit enticing enough to engage in aggressive politics, barring of course any dangerous domestic setbacks or foreign developments (i.e. Egypt and Syria). This would make Turkey the uncertain yet pivotal player in any bold attempts to undermine Western influence in the Middle East and North East Africa.

In the case of Iran, US sanctions, beyond having a crippling effect on the economy, have effectively undercut Iran’s application for permament status in the SCO, an increasingly relevant international cooperation comprising eastern Asian states including Russia and China that aims to counteract growing US influence as it creeps ever deeper into Asia and Africa. Serving parallel benefits for the US these sanctions have helped in blocking or limiting Iran’s access to nuclear power through trade restrictions and the US can also be seen to have taken extra measures (tongue-in-cheek) to physically isolate Iran with two wars that have created a Persian burger with US buns on either side, west in Iraq and east in Afghanistan and Pakistan; and let’s not forget US-favourite Saudi Arabia to the south. The largest political asset of Iran, though, is its alliance with the Syrian regime, Hezb Allah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Palestine. This could serve as its richest bargaining chip in any deeper conciliation with a new Egypt and hence in turn with Turkey, a 3-for-1 deal of sorts, and all things considered would likely be the most willing partner of a tri-alliance.

However, the largest current geopolitical question regarding Egypt is still to be answered as the political vaacum has exposed the country to instability while protests have not yet quelled and the country remains under the watchful eye of the West. Even with Europe to its north, unfriendly SA to its east and NATO and the US directly to its west in Libya, a powerful Egyptian military could present more destructive regional consequences to US and NATO interests than any imagined Turkish rise. A leap of faith may even lead one to believe the unofficial reason for intervention in Libya was to create yet another sandwich, of Egyptian variety this time. Even Cairo’s closest African ally to the south has been chopped in half by recent developments in Sudan that have suddenly turned friendly Sudan into friendly North Sudan for Egypt, as South Sudan remains largely under Western backing. With Nato and the UN hinting threats at the North after it took control of a key oil state along the newly created border when recent clashes erupted, Egypt is not so much a burger as it as a wrap.

As it goes, risk-aversity as well as elements of a Prisoner’s Dilemma force the imaginary TIE partnership into near impossibility, as each ‘partner’ would likely opt for guaranteed political stability with minor concessions over major uncertainty and high-risk political pathways. Taking into account the sectarian divide especially on the Iran front, the whole setup seems rather laughable and abstract at the end of it all, and indeed it may be so. Nonetheless, this has not stopped Israel from working tirelessly to ensure that a TIE partnership remains impossible. Dividing and weakening potential or perceived threats has been Israel’s chosen strategy for ensuring relative superiority or at least balanced influence in the region since its inception, allowing it to continue UN-opposed expansionist policies under pretexts of self-defense and state survival. The Egypt card has turned up stronger than expected, however, which has and will continue to cause serious problems as Egypt’s role in Palestine has shifted 180° since the dethroning of the Mubarak regime, and presents the most immediate problem for Israel at the moment. Any repositioning of TIE members that would foster affinity rather than division is unwelcome for Israel, so the case of Egypt and Iran courting each other on a platform of mutual shows of support for the Palestinians has rung major alarm bells in Israel. This has prompted Israel to send their PM to address the US Congress in an exuberant show of ass-kissing with several Congress-wide standing ovations; a symbolic gesture to show to the world where standeth the powerful men and women of the mighty US Empire.

By Milad Dakka

Turkey's defense spending and procurement under the AKP

2010-11-23T09:48:00.013-05:00

Late last month I was browsing through the Turkish daily English language newspaper the Hurriyet, looking for a an Op-Ed to sacrifice and dissect as part of an exercise for an International Affairs seminar I'm taking. Surely, I came across an Op-Ed called "Enemy-less" Turkey.

In his article, author Burak Bekdil looks at at Turkey’s reduction of its security blacklist. The official enemy list, once comprised of any state supporting Armenia, Greece and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, is now reduced to virtually zero and proportionally reflects the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP’s, “zero-problems-with-neighbors” policy.

Mr. Bekdil points out however, that despite this policy, defense spending and procurement decisions have been continuously disproportional.

My critique of Mr. Bekdil's analysis was published in the Hurriyet on November 4th as a Letter to the Editor. Here's a preview:

Mr. Bekdil’s analysis falls into two traps: first, by taking Turkey’s “established security concept” only on the basis of what the government vocalizes through speech, and, second, by asserting that defense budgets “must” be coherent with a publicized security strategy.
States were once vocal about their security concerns to the international community during the cold war, but security agendas have become more complex matters. States often cannot share their security concerns without adding to insecurity. After a long history marked by an aggressive security agenda and failure at pulling away from its eastern neighborhood through the EU, Turkey realizes this. Although the zero-problem policy signals a new approach, the security situation itself didn’t change much. The AKP simply re-framed its external security concept to exclude usage of the negative and personifying attribute “enemy”. Turkey, so long as it has interests in northern Cyprus, is a stakeholder in NATO’s collective security strategy, and has disputes with the PKK, will have direct security concerns. The volatility of the Middle East also leaves it with infinite indirect security threats. The AKP’s branding of the zero-problem policy is more of an instrument; it’s a way of achieving the end-goal that it proclaims – that is, economic and diplomatic partnership and influence. It recognizes that voicing suspicion of states or fear of aggression can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a state has strong defensive capability, as Turkey does, what can it expect from denouncing state X as suspicious, other than being prisoner to its security dilemma?

If having my critique published didn't catch me off guard, Mr. Bekdil's subsequent publication "Smart defense spending is always possible"certainly did.

In “Enemy-less Turkey,” published in this column on Oct. 26, I intended to contend – and probably failed – to present what is essentially a visible inconsistency between the government’s recently-sealed security threat whitepaper and its choices
of armaments. I merely hoped to express my failure to understand any military spending that exclusively targets some of the countries that have been removed from Turkey’s list of potential threats.
Allow me to quote a few lines from “Enemy-less Turkey:”
**Insert redundant re-publication of previous article here**
Then this newspaper published a letter to the editor on Nov. 4 from Sarah Maksoud of Carleton University, Ottawa. Ms. Maksoud argued that: “…The trend of inconsistency between security context and defense spending reaches across various states and governments; it is neither specific to the AKP [Justice and Development Party], nor is it a mark of hypocrisy.” Thank you, too, Ms Maksoud.

My thoughts on this were left in the comment section beneath the article.

In any case, the debate on Turkey's defense spending and procurement can be considered timely, more so now with Turkey's military alliances outside NATO stirring trouble in the aftermath of the Lisbon summit. The question of Turkey's security concept and allegiances is resonating ever louder.

5 life lessons Economics can teach us

2010-11-20T12:04:00.011-05:00

Many people question the ability of Economics to really reflect what goes on in real life. Of course when Economics makes assumptions like "all else equal" before every causal statement or "rational people think at the margin", I don't discredit people's skepticism. Nevertheless, we can still derive some pretty important life lessons that are probably truer to life than the economic principles they came from.

1. Expectations: economics has taught us that expectations for the future can influence real variables.

Ex. A reduction in an economy's money supply will, all else equal, cause interest rates to rise, and the domestic currency to appreciate in value. This appreciation creates expectations for future and further appreciation of the currency, prompting people to invest where returns in the valuable currency are being offered. That is to say, if the US dollar is appreciating against the Canadian dollar, Canadians would prefer to invest Canadian dollars where returns would be paid in US dollars, with the expectation that the US dollar will continue becoming more valuable. This behavior, prompted by expectations, actually drives the value of the appreciating currency even higher.

Lesson: expectations influence our actions in many ways, and it is action that creates results. Whether you believe you're going to fail or succeed, or that a huge recession is about to hit, you're probably right.

2. Dead-weight loss & Externalities: dead-weight loss is the potential economic profit that is lost to all participants in a supply-demand market for a certain service or good. Its often used to graphically represent the negative effects of policy decisions such as taxation on a particular good. Taxing a good would not only reduce the seller's profits directly, but it would also prompt people to buy less of the good, further reducing the seller's profit as well as consumer benefits from paying less money.

Externalities are extra costs or benefits associated with a good or service that are not factored into prices. Ex. education provides many positive externalities for society, meanwhile goods that create pollution provide negative externalities. As a student I'm skeptical of the former statement and my pocket too begs to differ, but that is what's written in the books!

Lesson: well-meaning actions can have unintended and unanticipated consequences. On the other hand, sometimes ill-meaning actions can produce positive benefits.

3. Diminishing Marginal Utility: a trend/ point in a production or consumption process where an increase in inputs takes away from efficiency or net-benefit. Ex. In a factory, the more workers you have employed, the more the products that can be produced, and the more efficient the process becomes. UNTIL of course the factory becomes so packed with workers that no one is able to move, production gradually ceases, and disease runs rampant. Then worker investment in the production process would be experiencing diminishing marginal utility.

Lesson: more is not always better. In fact, there's almost always a certain amount of anything that can harm if not kill you. Yes, even happiness can cause heart attacks in large amounts. There is something positive to be said about all this though: if you're planning on pulling an all-nighter, think twice. At a certain level of sleep deprivation your efforts will experience diminishing marginal utility. You would have been better off taking a nap and resuming your work with greater efficiency!

4. Opportunity Cost: the cost of something is that which you have to give up to get it, not just the money you pay.

Lesson: tuition is more than just the $5,000 + you pay every year. Factor in hundreds of hours of lost sleep and medical bills, due to a crappy immune system, due to lack of sleep; the forgone profit you could have made by going into an academically light-weight but extremely risky job your parents talked you out of like under-sea welding; the money you could have made by investing $ 20,000 into stocks and bonds and becoming a stock market guru; the money you could have made by becoming a model and living off of your looks; the money you could have saved AND made if you decided to marry a Saudi sheikh and live off of his oil profits... I take it you see what I mean by now. On the bright side, knowledge is priceless :)

5. Fiat Money: money that is considered valuable because the government says so, not because there's anything tangible like gold backing it up. The concept of fiat money allows banks to take your savings and lend it out to people (who must pay it back with interest); meanwhile your money, as far as you're concerned is still in your full possession and existence.

Lesson: money does not grow on trees, despite all the effort you might invest into planting... it does however come out of thin air. Not to worry, there are still a few cultures on this planet that use a barter system and reward hard work.

Please pay no mind to the unintentional transition in tone from philanthropy to cynicism. Economics is still an integral part of spiritual insight in a world made to go round by money.

Multiculturalism in Canada: Mayor Nenshi debates Tarek Fatah on Al Jazeera English

2010-11-19T16:38:00.015-05:00

Just yesterday, recently-elected Mayor of Calgary Naheed Nenshi (for those unfamiliar, the first ever Muslim mayor elected to lead a major North American city) and so-called "secular muslim" activist Tarek Fatah, who is a well known critic of Canada's multiculturalism policies, engaged in a debate on Al Jazeera English's Riz Khan Show. The premise of the debate was "With Islamophobia on the rise in the US and Europe, has Canada set a different example by electing that country's first ever Muslim mayor?"

I think that Nenshi has successfully exposed Tarek Fatah for the idiot that he is. It doesn't take long for one to clearly see that Fatah truly isn't a very smart man, and that when put up against an individual who is well versed in the realities regarding Multiculturalism in Canada and the circumstances of Muslim-Canadians in particular, he has no choice but to continue throwing out as much alarmist rhetoric as possible to pursue what I see as nothing less than an anti-Canada smear campaign in the name of self-promotion. Fatah has been able to build a considerable base of followers on the political right, precisely because he says exactly what they want to hear.

Not only has Fatah, as Mayor Nenshi correctly pointed out, made a career out of making things seem worse than they actually are, but he brings up alarming and unusual isolated incidents, and even goes so far as to distort facts (just to point out one example, Africville--the district of Halifax in which Tarek Fatah claims that Black-Canadians continue to live segregated from the rest of society, was evicted in the 1960s, and the Government of Nova Scotia has officially apologized for its existence and the untimely eviction, which involved moving the entire population out of their homes (in garbage trucks, no less) to make way for the construction of a suspension bridge. If you plan on visiting the province, there is an exhibit about it on display in the Black Heritage Centre in Preston, NS).

Fatah is right on one thing: Nenshi won the election because he was the best man for the job. He is one of the most competent politicians I have seen come out of this country in a long time. Not only that, but he speaks French, used to work for the United Nations, was a debating champion with Ezra Levant (lol), and holds a degree in Government from Harvard University. His campaign, which used the internet and social networking to mobilize an impressive voter turnout for municipal elections, and got unusually large segments of young people and visible minorities out to vote, is reminiscent of another, much more well-known, politician. Looking to the future, I have high hopes for him.

Knowing How to Say NO

2010-09-27T22:06:00.004-04:00

“Why can we not say no to our men? We African women need to learn from Western women how to say no.”

This was part of a dialogue I had with a Botswana woman during a government sponsored event – a candle-lit vigil to remember those who have perished from AIDS. I was invited to speak about youth and HIV/AIDS, in particular the efforts to prevent HIV transmission. The highest prevalence of HIV infected persons exists in sub-Saharan Africa, with Botswana being the 2^nd highest country in the world, percentage-wise, after Swaziland. There are numerous strategies in place in Botswana to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. Naturally, the primary focus is on educating people about the disease. This strategy has been put in place by the major Western donors, including ACHAP (Bill and Melinda Gates foundation) and USAID (United States Agency for International Development).

But with prevalence rates increasing, many of us are left wondering why. Why are they increasing with all the education initiatives in place? Education is simply not enough. There are deep rooted sociological, psychological and behavioural factors at play. And while I fully support empowerment through education, there is more that we are missing in our efforts to end the spread of HIV/AIDS. Botswana's goal is to end all new infections by 2016, an ambitious goal to say the least.

Then I think back to the conversation I had with this Botswana woman. Now I have had many such conversations with women in Botswana, but this particular conversation made me reflect upon was the power of ‘no’. In a sense the word itself is often seen in a negative light, as a refusal. However, in North America, we women are afforded the choice of saying no to a man. Not that this always occurs, but we can use it in light of making choices. It’s my right to say no: I know it and I believe it. This does not guarantee that it will be respected, but I still know how to say ‘no’. In Botswana, things are not so simple. A woman saying ‘no’ challenges the deep-rooted patriarchal system that exists at all levels of social and inter-personal interactions.

It was Botswana women themselves that told me they did not know how to say no. Now Botswana is not the only place in this world where patriarchy prevails, but it is one country I can speak about given my experience working there. Saying no to sex denies a man his right to pleasure, and for many women, it goes against the ‘duty’ of satisfying a man. This touches on cultural norms, values and behaviours that are so entrenched in society that they are hard to break. Changing them will take time. We cannot assume education can be the instant fix. Education about the severity of the disease, how it is transmitted and the protective measures one can take to prevent infection is the start but by no means the quick or ultimate solution.

“If a man does not want to wear a condom, we can’t make him.”

This was another common thing I would hear in conversations with women. The same problem would apply to women wearing the female condom…if a man refuses to have sex with her wearing it, then what? In Botswana, a woman's right to say ‘no’ to unsafe sex is not recognized or normalized.

A woman’s ability to say ‘no’ is only one component in HIV/AIDS prevention. It is easy to argue that educated women can make more informed choices. I agree to an extent. But, what would you say if I told you these conversations were with the educated elite in Botswana? These women were government officials!

Priya Saibel works as a consultant on International Development and is completing her M.A. in Conflict Studies at Saint Paul University.

So you're from Niger? Oh wow, I've never met a.... embarassing pause

2010-09-02T10:16:00.019-04:00

The above title makes reference to one of those seemingly universal moments that any sociable person (especially in Canada) has or will encounter at some point in their life, with one country or another. Luckily for myself, the inspiration for this post didn't come from first hand experience, but from a conversation with a Congolese friend.

We had run into each other after a 4 month hiatus and naturally, we had lots of catching up to do. At one point she had been telling me about her cousins who had just flown in from Niger, and how she had other cousins in Nigeria—and then the apparent linguistic paradox struck. It only took one question to drag my friend into the same deep contemplation:
—So what nationality are your cousins from Niger?
—Well, they're... oh

Ultimately the combined powers of the Apple iPhone and Google revealed that someone from Niger is of Nigerien nationality, the demonym being Nigerien.

**Just as an aside, I can't help but laugh as I write this next part. Having told my mother about the topic of my post, she has been posing the same questions in perfect order all the while.
—So what DO you call someone from Niger?
—A Nigerien
—But that's French! What is it in English?
Are u going to tell me the difference or what??**

So as my mother just noted Nigerien would intuitively be the french demonym for Nigeria: Nigerian in English; Nigerien en Français— right?

Actually, Nigerien holds both in English and French for Niger, while Nigerian also holds in both languages for Nigeria. Go figure.

Anyways, for your—and indefinitely my own—reference, below is a chart from About.com listing countries and their respective nationalities.

Country	Demonym
Afghanistan	Afghan
Albania	Albanian
Algeria	Algerian
Andorra	Andorran
Angola	Angolan
Antigua and Barbuda	Antiguans, Barbudans
Argentina	Argentine or Argentinean
Armenia	Armenian
Australia	Australian or Ozzie or Aussie
Austria	Austrian
Azerbaijan	Azerbaijani
The Bahamas	Bahamian
Bahrain	Bahraini
Bangladesh	Bangladeshi
Barbados	Barbadian or Bajuns
Belarus	Belarusian
Belgium	Belgian
Belize	Belizean
Benin	Beninese
Bhutan	Bhutanese
Bolivia	Bolivian
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Bosnian, Herzegovinian
Botswana	Motswana (singular), Batswana (plural)
Brazil	Brazilian
Brunei	Bruneian
Bulgaria	Bulgarian
Burkina Faso	Burkinabe
Burundi	Burundian
Cambodia	Cambodian
Cameroon	Cameroonian
Canada	Canadian
Cape Verde	Cape Verdian or Cape Verdean
Central African Republic	Central African
Chad	Chadian
Chile	Chilean
China	Chinese
Colombia	Colombian
Comoros	Comoran
Congo, Republic of the	Congolese
Congo, Democratic Republic of the	Congolese
Costa Rica	Costa Rican
Cote d'Ivoire	Ivorian
Croatia	Croat or Croatian
Cuba	Cuban
Cyprus	Cypriot
Czech Republic	Czech
Denmark	Dane or Danish
Djibouti	Djibouti
Dominica	Dominican
Dominican Republic	Dominican
East Timor	East Timorese
Ecuador	Ecuadorean
Egypt	Egyptian
El Salvador	Salvadoran
Equatorial Guinea	Equatorial Guinean or Equatoguinean
Eritrea	Eritrean
Estonia	Estonian
Ethiopia	Ethiopian
Fiji	Fijian
Finland	Finn or Finnish
France	French or Frenchman or Frenchwoman
Gabon	Gabonese
The Gambia	Gambian
Georgia	Georgian
Germany	German
Ghana	Ghanaian
Greece	Greek
Grenada	Grenadian or Grenadan
Guatemala	Guatemalan
Guinea	Guinean
Guinea-Bissau	Guinea-Bissauan
Guyana	Guyanese
Haiti	Haitian
Honduras	Honduran
Hungary	Hungarian
Iceland	Icelander
India	Indian
Indonesia	Indonesian
Iran	Iranian
Iraq	Iraqi
Ireland	Irishman or Irishwoman or Irish
Israel	Israeli
Italy	Italian
Jamaica	Jamaican
Japan	Japanese
Jordan	Jordanian
Kazakhstan	Kazakhstani
Kenya	Kenyan
Kiribati	I-Kiribati
Korea, North	North Korean
Korea, South	South Korean
Kosovo	Kosovar
Kuwait	Kuwaiti
Kyrgyz Republic	Kyrgyz or Kirghiz
Laos	Lao or Laotian
Latvia	Latvian
Lebanon	Lebanese
Lesotho	Mosotho (plural Basotho)
Liberia	Liberian
Libya	Libyan
Liechtenstein	Liechtensteiner
Lithuania	Lithuanian
Luxembourg	Luxembourger
Macedonia	Macedonian
Madagascar	Malagasy
Malawi	Malawian
Malaysia	Malaysian
Maldives	Maldivan
Mali	Malian
Malta	Maltese
Marshall Islands	Marshallese
Mauritania	Mauritanian
Mauritius	Mauritian
Mexico	Mexican
Federated States of Micronesia	Micronesian
Moldova	Moldovan
Monaco	Monegasque or Monacan
Mongolia	Mongolian
Montenegro	Montenegrin
Morocco	Moroccan
Mozambique	Mozambican
Myanmar (Burma)	Burmese or Myanmarese
Namibia	Namibian
Nauru	Nauruan
Nepal	Nepalese
Netherlands	Netherlander, Dutchman, Dutchwoman, Hollander or Dutch (collective)
New Zealand	New Zealander or Kiwi
Nicaragua	Nicaraguan
Niger	Nigerien
Nigeria	Nigerian
Norway	Norwegian
Oman	Omani
Pakistan	Pakistani
Palau	Palauan
Panama	Panamanian
Papua New Guinea	Papua New Guinean
Paraguay	Paraguayan
Peru	Peruvian
Philippines	Filipino
Poland	Pole or Polish
Portugal	Portuguese
Qatar	Qatari
Romania	Romanian
Russia	Russian
Rwanda	Rwandan
Saint Kitts and Nevis	Kittian and Nevisian
Saint Lucia	Saint Lucian
Samoa	Samoan
San Marino	Sammarinese or San Marinese
Sao Tome and Principe	Sao Tomean
Saudi Arabia	Saudi or Saudi Arabian
Senegal	Senegalese
Serbia	Serbian
Seychelles	Seychellois
Sierra Leone	Sierra Leonean
Singapore	Singaporean
Slovakia	Slovak or Slovakian
Slovenia	Slovene or Slovenian
Solomon Islands	Solomon Islander
Somalia	Somali
South Africa	South African
Spain	Spaniard or Spanish
Sri Lanka	Sri Lankan
Sudan	Sudanese
Suriname	Surinamer
Swaziland	Swazi
Sweden	Swede or Swedish
Switzerland	Swiss
Syria	Syrian
Taiwan	Taiwanese
Tajikistan	Tajik or Tadzhik
Tanzania	Tanzanian
Thailand	Thai
Togo	Togolese
Tonga	Tongan
Trinidad and Tobago	Trinidadian or Tobagonian
Tunisia	Tunisian
Turkey	Turk or Turkish
Turkmenistan	Turkmen(s)
Tuvalu	Tuvaluan
Uganda	Ugandan
Ukraine	Ukrainian
United Arab Emirates	Emirati
United Kingdom	Briton or British (collective) (or Englishman or Englishwoman) (or Scot or Scotsman or Scotswoman) (or Welshman or Welshwoman) (or Northern Irishman or Northern Irishwoman or Irish [collective] or Northern Irish [collective])
United States	American
Uruguay	Uruguayan
Uzbekistan	Uzbek or Uzbekistani
Vanuatu	Ni-Vanuatu
Vatican City (Holy See)	none
Venezuela	Venezuelan
Vietnam	Vietnamese
Yemen	Yemeni or Yemenite
Zambia	Zambian
Zimbabwe	Zimbabwean

Open data goes south...and east?

2010-08-12T10:33:00.005-04:00

The concept of open government data has picked up a lot of speed within the last few years among the West as talk of digital economies and the incorporation of web 2.0 technologies has grown. But as many western countries themselves hesitate to implement such channels for transparency, could the trend extend east and southward?

The World Wide Web Foundation and partner Fundacion (CTIC) thinks there may be potential for middle-income countries and has launched a project to assess exactly that. The project will seek to assess the possibilities for implementation of open government data programs in Chile, Ghana and Turkey, while answering three questions: "Is the country ready to engage in an OGD initiative? If so, what support might they need? If not, why not, and what lesson can we take away from this assessment?"- Steve Bratt, Aug. 9, 2010.

I can't speak for Ghana or Chile, but when I consider Turkey's referendum on constitutional reform coming up on September 12 one thing comes to mind. In a context of legal and judicial battles between the government and military, military conspiracies and coup plots, and uneasy civilian-military relations, I can't help but feel that open government data would hold little priority over normalizing government operations and breaking down the silos that isolate civilian institutions from the judiciary and the military. The state has yet to be open with itself.

Whether open government data would be something that Recep Erdoğan's AKP government would support conceptually is another story. Yet, if such a thing were to be implemented anywhere in the middle east one day, it would almost certainly be in Turkey.

Digital infrastructure and human rights

2010-08-12T08:54:00.018-04:00

This past June, the Economist Intelligence Unit published its report on world digital economy rankings for 2010. One thing came to mind: when did levels of digital technology go from being a mark of aesthetic superiority, to becoming an integral part of a country's economy and infrastructure? I guess around the same time that Governments around the world (including ours) have been using web 2.0 technologies and social media to effectively develop policy and produce documents— there's something surreal about watching public servants use wikis for work, and the Clerk of the Privy Council tweet about social media.

In any case, with our ranking relative to OECD countries for economic competitiveness and the funding of research and development i.e. innovation, Canada has fallen a few spots. What's unusual is not that Australia managed to sneak past us again, but that there seems to be little economic or geographical discrimination in the rankings. I actually found the list aesthetically pleasing. For example, Bermuda trailed behind Belgium by a mere 0.05 points beating the UAE, Israel, Italy and Spain, to name a few. Meanwhile Taiwan and South Korea have climbed significantly from last year's ranking, giving Canada a run for its points. The report does an excellent job of revealing the role of digital technology and infrastructure in a wide spectrum of areas directly affecting our economic health. Digital infrastructure is rising rapidly in importance, enough so to be widely considered a human right. The United Nations for a while now has been pushing for internet access to universally become a human right, meanwhile, France, Finland, and Estonia to name a few have actually ruled broadband internet access as such. Similarly realizing the importance of digital infrastructure, Australia is pursuing a National Broadband Network initiative worth 40 Billion dollars.

The Government of Canada has launched it's own consultation on a digital economy in a timely fashion, aimed at developing a digital economy strategy. 3 ideas have been prominent so far: (1) to compete you must compute, (2) open access to public sector information, and (3) improved access to publicly-funded data. Note: city-wide broadband just missed the front page at number 4—how? I haven't a clue, what kind of student or citizen for that matter wouldn't prioritize free internet ?

Is free internet access city, province or country-wide in store for us? Aside from a few political pitches and strategic deliberation, there's been little serious discussion about it; I must admit, I don't think following suit with Australia's strategy would be such a bad idea.

Care to share your thoughts on Canada's digital strategy? Agree or disagree with with the notion of internet access as a human right? Feel free to leave a comment and join the discussion.

Image from abc.net.au

Facial Hair in Turkish Politics: A Tale of Moustaches and Men

2010-08-08T19:54:00.002-04:00

Over in the West, a modern legacy of clean-shaven presidents and prime ministers has likely numbed our appreciation for the speechless statements of ideology that a political moustache can make. To many Turks however, moustaches and maxims go hand-in-hand. Happy reading...

Note to readers:

2010-08-08T10:07:00.002-04:00

Appologies for the posting lag. Please bear with us as Global Axioms will be undergoing some potentially drastic changes and improvements over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned for a few surprises.

A Conflict of Extremes?

2010-06-07T22:07:00.002-04:00

In case it was lost on anyone following the flotilla crisis between Israel and the activists, one of the dead activists was a dual U.S.-Turkish citizen. As I compare Turkish reactions to its citizens being killed to that of the lack of U.S. reaction, I start to wonder: is this conflict one of extremes, in which any nuance in allegiance is impossible?

In other words, does the dead citizen in this case renege his citizenship to one country based on his political views and actions towards a foreign third-party country?

The dead activists in this case was 19 years old and was born in the U.S., lived there as a child, and moved to Turkey years ago. But for anyone ready to pounce on the intuitive logic that this young man could barely be considered a U.S. citizen - due to his a) lack of allegiance to one of the U.S.'s best friends, and b) the small amount of years he actual lived in the U.S. - I would counsel to think twice before embarking on such a slippery line of reasoning. Let us remember that a) this citizen's other country (Turkey) is also considered one of America's 'best friends' in the region, and b) the current American President, none other than Barack Obama, spent the majority of his youth living abroad.

The Colors of Capitalism

2010-05-08T18:23:00.033-04:00

In this previous post, we argue that violent parliamentary politics can reveal much about the underlying cultural and historical nuances of a country. Stock exchanges, the shrines of Capitalism, are similarly very telling about the ideological frameworks behind differing kinds of Capitalism around the world.

Note: Global Axioms Blog cannot be held legally liable for any ensuing speculative attacks on foreign currencies resulting after the publication of this post.

New York

Chicago

Classification: Market-led Capitalism
Ideology: Laissez-faire non-intervention (note the laid back social ettiquette and littering habbits), cut-throat individualism (a constant battle for personal space and secret hand signal supremacy). With so many individuals on the floor competing for visibility, outfits and propper color-cordination must often be sacrificed.

Shanghai

Tokyo

Classification: Corporate Capitalism
Ideology: Top-down, communitarian, strong social cohesion , controlled environment, prominence of large corporate actors. In China this translates into an eerily efficient seating-plan and nationalist color coordination amongst personnel dressed in modest vests. In Tokyo, the emphasis seems to be on the top-down system and social cohesion, with the mantra being "he who can afford a ridiculously expensive (yet coordinated) suit may walk the floor." Those of us in the West may note the lack of action, suspense, and violent hand gestures. Common China, drop the primative communitarian politics!

Germany

Classification: Social-democratic Capitalism
Ideology: Negotiated compromise amongst interest groups, good urban systems and social mechanisms. In summary: controlled, egalitarian individualism, "to each his own bubble."

Kuwait:

Cassification: Sheiko-Capitalism
Ideology: Unrestricted movement of goods and services ( like the free-market model), however privatized state enterprises are distributed among the elite. The model serves the market-led philosophy but maintains a strong autocratic political system.

Tehran

Classification: According to President Ahmadinejad, "Declining Capitalism"
Ideology: It was once based on the premise that the decline of the United States would collapse the Capitalist system as a whole. But could this statement be veiling a domestic reason for the discouraging forecast?

Athens

Classification: The mess left by a bomb at the Athens Stock Exchange in September 2009 is a pretty telling depiction of the state of Greek Capitalism at the moment
Ideology: The latest European news would indicate "Fiscal Laissez-faire" gone bad.

It's Russia Time

2010-05-01T11:51:00.008-04:00

Watching the rumble that took place in the Ukrainian Parliament this week evokes an interesting image; Russian officials sitting around a table toasting each other with Vodka to go along fresh caviar fished straight out of the Black Sea.

Asides from being a stereotypical parody of Russians, I don't think the underlying logic of the image is that far off the mark.

If we were to look back at the past eight years of Russian-American relations, it would be difficult to label them as anything other than 'prickly'.

The post-9/11 rapprochement between Washington and Moscow was a short-lived affair. It was truly a 'marriage of convenience'. Both the Russians and the Americans had an interest in facing Islamic-inspired and nationalist militants - the U.S. in Afghanistan and the Russians in Chechnya. But that is about as far as their strategic interests converged.

Very quickly, geopolitical realities came back with a vengeance. Russian national power began reconsolidating itself around the emergence of Vladimir Putin on the national stage in 2000 - a nationalist ex-KGB director with a life-long network of friends and allies in Russia's security services. Around the same time, the rapid rise of oil prices beginning in 2002 and reaching a record US$147 a barrel in July 2008 resulted in a more confident and wealthy Russia. The windfall from oil and gas rapidly expanded Russia's state coffers and brought about a renewed sense of economic and political assertiveness.

The U.S. was heavily invested by this point in Afghanistan and Iraq, and had an increasingly thorny Iranian nuclear issue to deal with. This made the U.S. vulnerable - both Washington and Moscow recognized this. To keep the Russians occupied away from the Afghan and Iraqi theatres of operation, the Americans successfully supported anti-Russian politicians and pro-Western movements through the 'colour revolutions' which began in Georgia 2003, moved to Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Looking to consolidate these geopolitical gains in Eastern Europe, Washington pushed to install anti-missile capabilities in Poland and the Czech Republic - using the Iranian threat, which the Russians never bought for one second, as smokescreen. Washington also pushed for expansion of NATO into Ukraine and Georgia, in the face of heavy French and German opposition.

So, in light of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 (which Russia handily won), the return of a pro-Kremlin party to power in Ukraine in February 2010, and the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, the push-and-pull of American-Russian competition is clearly laid out. Advantage Washington for the first half of the first decade of the 21st century; advantage Kremlin in the second.

I wouldn't call this the return of a new Cold War. Just geopolitics as usual.

Photo from Peter Schrank - The Economist

Imam opens Texas Senate proceedings

2010-04-30T14:41:00.006-04:00

The best way to defeat extremism. Watch and see. In Texas of all places!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8310458704620005176#

Parliamentary Warfare

2010-04-20T09:48:00.015-04:00

I just read an interesting article that sheds light on the recent incident of Kurdish politician Ahmet Türk being punched in the face and having his nose broken. The article looks at what seems to be incidents of an overly politicized Turkish society, resulting in political fistfights over the years. Given that in Canada, question period and House debates are seen to be a joke, I thought it would be interesting to compare parliamentary warfare in different countries.

Turkey
1968- Çetin Altan, a deputy in the socialist Workers' Party of Turkey, calls Nâzım Hikmet, a Turkish poet who was exiled to Russia for his political beliefs, a “great poet”. Justice Party deputies then jump from their seats and pin him in between the seats. He is rescued by friends, and suffers loss of vision to one eye.

1975- President Süleyman Demirel is punched in the face and has his nose broken by a “psychologically abnormal” man dressed in a lieutenant’s uniform.

1989- DYP Siirt deputy Abdülrezzak Ceylan was shot with a gun that belonged to another deputy. Ceylan was trying to break up a fight between other deputies.

2001- A True Path Party deputy, Fevzi Şıhanlıoğlu, has a heart attack after being punched in the face by an MHP İçel deputy, Cahit Tekelioğlu, and dies.

Approach: deadly personal politics with nose-breaking (see photo for confirmation), eye-gouging tendencies

Canada
1985- Jim Fulton, NDP environment critic smuggles a dead salmon into the House of Commons in his pants, crosses the floor, and smacks the aquatic specimen onto the desk of a shocked Brian Mulroney.

2005- A question is put to the government on passing more serious punishment for cruelty to animals. Liberal, David McGuinty, gets into a heated debate across the floor with the conservatives and targets Peter MacKay, asking "Don't you love your dog?". MacKay points to an empty seat reserved for Belinda Stronach and shouts, "You've got her." Prior to crossing the floor to the Liberal Party, Stronach had been a Conservative and romantically involved with MacKay.

2008- Jack Layton gets into a passionate speech about oil subsidies addressed to Stephen Harper: "Will the Prime Minister finally get something done and do something the former government wouldn't and cancel the subsidies to big oil and big ass— big gas." Layton has hardly stopped blushing before Harper chimes in with, "Well Mr. Speaker, I promise to get to the bottom of it."

Approach: pure harmless satire

South Korea
2009- The ruling Grand National Party passes a bill which will privatize South Korean media. The opposition Democratic Party strongly opposes, and an all out brawl erupts. The brawl has nothing on this Korean parliamentary judo-showdown however.

Approach: bar brawl meets judo master

Guatemala
This video shows what can only be classified as human beer pong in the Guatemalan congress. A man is pushed back and forth between two colleagues before having water splashed in his face.

Approach: humiliating and seemingly coordinated bullying... the man must have done something wrong

Sudan
This next case of parliamentary chaos occurred during a parliamentary debate in Khartoum, Sudan, by Somali politicians who came to negotiate a peace agreement.

Approach: pure unreserved anger

Sri Lanka
I couldn't tell you who's who in this Sri Lankan Parliamentary fight, even if I could name all the parties involved. There seems to be a dress code.

Approach: uncoordinated mass frustration

Jordan
2001- A confrontation breaks out between Ahmad Uwede Abadi and Mansour Murad, in which Abadi rips off part of Murad's ear.

Abadi, an outspoken Bedouin, is known for his dislike towards Palestinians residing in Jordan, a tribal/political tension much of the rest of the world is oblivious to. In fact in this fistfight, Abadi can be seen making a speech on the topic, which rouses Khalil Atieh. Abadi then turns the tables around and runs at Atieh.

Approach: the deep-set ring in the middle of the room leaves no doubt that UFC action with a Mike Tyson twist is often expected

From what we've seen so far, parliaments around the world are endowed with judo masters, bullies, boxers, mercinaries, and generally furious people; meanwhile, Canada's busy launching comedic careers during question period. An important piece of evidence backing up the democratic peace theory can be taken from the examples shown here: democratic nations are less likely to go to war with other democracies... because that's what parliament is for!

Photo taken from worldbulletin.net

Sarah Maksoud

http://www.globalaxioms.blogspot.com/

The iPad: the next technology for good governance?

2010-04-17T09:40:00.008-04:00

If you've been following up with us, you'll remember we posted a link about the American military's use of iPhone aps to combat the insurgency in iRaq – couldn't resist. The iPhone has gone to war, and now it seems the iPad is proving itself in matters of state governance.

By now, everyone's heard of the volcanic eruption in Iceland that has grounded some 16,000 flights to and from mainly Europe. One unfortunate passenger stranded outside his country at a New York airport happened to be Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, who had just come out of the Nuclear summit in Washington and was embarking home through New York. Not to fear, knowing he'd be stranded for quite a while, he whipped out his iPad and began mobilizing his network of office personnel, taking care of domestic affairs.

"There are good means of communication, I have close contacts with my office all the times, and there are a lot of activities in Norway where we try to reduce the consequences of the volcano in Norway," Stoltenberg said. "It's very normal for a PM to travel abroad so this is not different from the other travels, it's just lasts some days more than expected. We have the internet, the mobile phone. I also use an iPad, which is excellent."-CNN, April 15, 2010.

Not everyone is rejoicing just yet over the great coming of the iPad, however. Israel is still imposing a ban on iPads and confiscating them at the airport, requiring passengers to send them back overseas, or have them stored at a warehouse at a price. The decision to hold on the approval of the operation of iPads within the country was apparently made by engineers within the Ministry of Communications, without actually notifying the Minister himself. Current iPads sold exclusively the US comply with American standards regarding the WiFi modem, which is set to operate at broadcast power levels. Israeli standards however, require broadcasting at lower levels of power, a standard highly similar to that of the EU – which has apparently already approved that the iPad is compliant with wireless regulation. Engineers apparently failed to agree on a means of testing the device's compatability with wireless networks.

It seems the days when testing for standards was actually standard are gone.

Curious about what the more meticulous Israeli radio frequency standards actually address, I took a look at the Ministry of Communications website: all the worry seems to be regarding the close proximity of wireless devices (broadcasting at powerful levels) to the human body. A very mainstream concern, although Israel seems to be leading higher standards than both the US and marginally, the EU. Despite being such a small state, saturated with the latest in military technology, concern for human health certainly quells the notion of regulation of high power frequencies as a precaution to reduce interference with certain military equipment.

An Experiment in Diplomatic Etiquette

2010-04-11T22:18:00.002-04:00

I just read a couple of interesting articles about the upcoming nuclear summit next week in Washington. The summit, with an expected attendance of 47, will focus on pressuring UN Security Council members to apply more sanctions to Iran. With such a touchy issue, and an influential host, I couldn't help but feel an interesting mobilization of events taking place. Here are a few of the developments so far:

(1) Benyamin Netanyahu has just pulled out of the conference after learning that Israel was likely to face pressure from Egypt and Turkey regarding its own atomic resources. Previous justifications for withdrawal from international conferences have been made on the same grounds: anticipated criticism. To be sure, the resonance of the Davos confrontation must have invoked a degree of prudence in Israel's involvement with political discussions regarding security.

(2) Most interestingly of all, Iran has decided to go ahead with its own nuclear summit on non-proliferation, which the Ambassador to Ankara has claimed is not a challenge to the U.S. Perhaps not, but it certainly places a few in the international community in a socially awkward position, not least Turkey. Out of 60 countries officially invited to Iran's summit, none have yet replied. "The Iranian authorities plan to hold the conference every year to inform the world about its stance." - Hurriyet daily news, April 9, 2010

(3) Turkey's recently prospering displomatic relations with Iran will be tested by these two parallel nuclear conferences. Heaviest consequence is sure to fall if Turkey opts to attend the Iranian conference au lieu of the American one; of course, this is extremely unlikely to happen. Then again, American-Turkish relations since the country's rapports with Iran have been rocky and politicized to a certain degree. This was reflected most recently in what seemed to have been an unintentionally peremptory congressional approval on the resolution to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide. Although Obama supports this resolution, I'm sure his attempts to hold off on the approval last minute, and his subsequent phone call to President Gül, was indicative of his realization of the impact it would have on American-Turkish relations. Only time will tell if Turkey will attend one or the other, or perhaps stay true to its multilateral, zero-problems policy and attend both

All in all, I can't help but sit back and watch this exercise in international etiquette with anticipation of what will emerge from the approaching parallel nuclear summits.

The mother of all fear-mongering ads

2010-04-11T14:50:00.002-04:00

Check out this ad. I actually saw it on CNN this morning and couldn't believe my eyes so I decided to share with everyone - happy watching!

The Politics of Contempt

2010-03-29T05:43:00.015-04:00

A couple of days ago I was filling my daily quota for useless information while reading an article which claimed that: contempt while having verbal arguments is one of the leading indicators of a marriage in jeopardy. Aside from stating the obvious, it actually raised an interesting idea; that is that contempt can be identified in a simple contraction of facial muscles (demonstrated by the image to the left).

Given that I didn't have a marital relationship to alarmingly reflect upon, the first thought that occurred to me was: I wonder how many politicians–even those with diplomatic weight– can't help but express snobbish contempt towards the people they're interacting with. Naturally, this called for a youtube case study! Just to be clear on what we're looking for below, contempt is defined as a feeling or expression of regarding someone/something as inferior and being generally annoyed.

Hillary Clinton being interviewed on Fox News: the prominent tightening hints at disfiguring amounts of contempt– or ... sorry I tried to come up with something witty, but this frame speaks for itself.

Barack Obama- being polemically grilled on Iraq: contempt? Nope, but he did make this same gaping expression at least 7 times throughout the interview. This is taken from a pre-presidency interview (note the naive sense of disbelief he shows to the Fox interviewer's question).

CNN interviewer's chat with Sarah Palin.

Yes, it gave me chills too. A disdainful Ann Coulter after being caught, by Al Franken, distorting New York Times' quotes . Yes, she actually does believe she's right and evidently superior despite having been publically embarassed 1.5 seconds previously. That rules out the "grand facade" theory. Not to worry, the extraterrestrial appendage emerging from the bottom left corner of the screen is sure to stir new explanations.

Mike Gravel being chastised by Rick Sanchez. Contempt? Maybe, but it's more likely to be nausea, someone pass him some Gravol.

So there we have it. The political world seems to be full of contempt–who would have imagined?
As a final note, I would like to add that there is absolutely no correlation between my use of CNN and Fox news interviews and the frequency of demonstrated contempt.

Be (mainstream) political, be happy?

2010-02-26T16:58:00.004-05:00

Politics is associated with alot of things; change, corruption, power, debate, violence, protest, ballots, democracy, authoritarianism...but happiness?

According to this new research, being political is not only good for the polity of which you are part, but also good for you.

A major caveat though; activists whose political activities put them at personal risk of arrest, injury, or worse, do not seem to reap the 'happiness' dividend - read and find out why.

Turkey's Unstrategic Strategy

2010-02-05T17:05:00.047-05:00

Turkey's strategic position in the Middle East has been taking the spotlight in recent months; headed by Prime Minister Erdoğan's leadership and Ahmet Davutoğlu's foreign policy perscriptions. After a few months of what seems to have been courting with its Arab neigbhours during dinner and a show (numerous bilateral agreements and visa-liftings and the memories of last year's World Economic Forum showdown over Gaza)–some are wondering where Turkey's foreign Policy is really going? As much as it has displayed progressive tact and an artful balance of interests so far, it clearly lacks the policy equivalent of a long-term "business plan". Realistically though, is it rational to write a plan before you know what kind of business you're entering?

An article in the Hürriyet claims that academic experts on foreign policy are skeptical of Turkey's proactive plans, arguing that it lacks strategy.

“Davutoğlu would change a lot in his book if were to write it again because facts are always different on the ground. ...Turkey is not calculating the factor of Hamas, al-Fatah and the various clans and tribes from Ankara. We don’t have much background information – we are novices; Western countries have cultural centers throughout the Middle East and they know the languages, but we are just beginning in this.” -University Professor Salih Bıçakçı (Hurriyet, Feb. 5, 2010)

This raises some important questions about the formulation and coordination of foreign policy in a changing system where the normative moral appeals of the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana are fading; the US' foreign policy dominance is declining, with its main focuses in Iraq and Afghanistan draining its resources with inconsistent and volatile progress; and where China is being increasingly forecast as a very real forthcoming hegemon. Will strong policy agendas focus on normative rules of action and reaction as in the past, or will they be guided by a multilateral and discretionary approach? Given recent western experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, it could soon be conceivably unrealistic to "calculate" multilateral foreign policy in general, when the outcomes of such policies depend on the resources, means and aims of more than one state.

The aforementioned criticism argues that Turkey's foreign policy lacks shape and "strategy". Turkey may be a novice in terms of foreign engagements, but do they really lack fundamental strategy? Although it may not have a calculated approach towards everything, its strategy is strategic in its discretion and incremental multilateralism towards its engagements, which are surrounded by a delicate regional, political and historical context. A context which has likely contributed to its "zero-problem, maximum cooperation" policy with neighbours.

At this point early on, it would seem unwise to begin calculated measures of action outside Turkey's domestic front with anything other than its economic engagements with its eastern neighbours. Afterall, in sticky situations economic integration has demonstrated an ability to overcome political pluarality, smoothing the way for political coordination– an axiom the EU has refined over the years.

(Image from trt.net.tr)

Is a reverse brain drain looming ?

2010-01-17T11:52:00.005-05:00

An interesting read on immigration trends in the U.S.; and I suspect most other Western nations. I found the concluding line particularly catchy and on the ball:

"What is clear is that a big shift is underway. China and India will no longer be farm teams for the scientific Big Leagues in America."

Snacks for Thought: January 11, 2010

2010-01-11T02:22:00.008-05:00

1. The Economist: Saudi religious leaders reconsider the taboos of public mixing of the sexes.
2. The effects of the Israeli blockade on the Palestinian labor force: an article demonstrating the ironies that a depressed Palestinian business cycle is producing in the construction of settlements in the West Bank.
3. Ahmadinejad demands reparitions for World War II.
4. The discovery of the tombs of the pyramid builders sheds light on the Egyptian labor market 4,000 years ago.
5. The New York Times' Sarah Kershaw goes through the psychology of radicalization and exposes the "terrorist mind".
6. The google Tax: be careful what you search for.
7. People of the Year 2009: Middle East Edition- An interesting bog entry assessing and labeling the year's politically influential people.

Referendum Ushers in Democratically Elected ... Colonial Rule?

2010-01-11T00:22:00.014-05:00

Many states who have emerged in their modern form from a history of colonial rule have undergone a nationalist movement at some point or another. A movement, whether propagated by authoritarian, perhaps aggressive means or by democratic practice, that often has one simple goal: AUTONOMY.

However, it seems that voters in the French Caribbean territories of Martinique and French Guiana are starting a modest movement against the mainstream. Al Jazeera reports that a referendum was recently held in both French departments on the question of giving local governments more freedoms and consequently autonomy. The referendum came from the suggestion of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as a way to mend ties after mainland France deployed riot police during a strike in Martinique in early 2009. The strike in Martinique was propelled by low wages and high prices–a trend that seems to be sweeping the region .

The outcome: 80 percent of voters in Martinique and 70 percent of voters in French Guiana rejected the proposal for increased power in their local governments.

Jaqueline Manger, a Martinique resident who voted against the proposal, said she "would like a change, but I don't think we are ready yet... I don't trust the people who lead the regional council and the general council,'' she said, referring to the local bodies that govern Martinique.

The results of the referendum are indicative of two things: (1) the citizens of the two territories are not in favor of dissolving ties with France just yet, even with the social unrest bubbling under pressure from the recent recession. (2) The Local governments of both countries might want to consider reevaluating their approach in public relations; there is clearly something amiss when your citizens mistrust your governance enough to prefer the rule of a man a few thousand miles away, who admittedly leaves something to be desired. The general and regional councils of Martinique in particular must have taken the hardest blow, as a similar proposal for increased autonomy was rejected 6 years ago.

(Photo from france24.com)

Snacks for Thought: January 05, 2010

2010-01-05T00:29:00.023-05:00

1. The insurgency app: this isn't quite new, but in case you missed it- check out one of 2009's greatest assets in the Iraqi operation.
2. Japan aims for Afghanistan with a new Turkish partnership.
3. Hu Jintao's dilema: will internal democracy help or hurt China's communist party? A great opinion article from the economist.
4. Is Yemen–a state weakened by years of civil war– Al Qaida’s newest target or the next focus of the War on Terror?
5. Is NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan pushing into a PR campaign or was it a timely coincidence?

“33. What does the Afghanistan Mission mean for the Alliance?

* NATO’s engagement in Afghanistan represents one of its toughest challenges. Currently, it is the Alliance’s single most important issue and there is a complete determination to succeed.
* NATO fully recognises that threats to our security are no longer limited to opposing state armies or marked by geographic boundaries. NATO will meet all security challenges with determination.
* NATO’s engagement in Afghanistan is proof-positive of its transformation from a static, Cold-War orientation to an organisation capable of dynamic and flexible response and geared to meet the asymmetric challenges to the Allies and their shared values.”

Have a look at the rest of this document released by the NATO Media Operations Centre and decide for yourself.

Underlying Problems in the Newest China-U.S. Steel Dispute

2009-12-31T11:04:00.013-05:00

On October 30, 2009, the U.S International Trade Commission decided to open an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation into Chinese seamless steel pipes referred to generally as Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG). They are mainly used for oil drilling.

A few days ago, the Commission decided to slap Chinese steel-pipes exporters with tariffs ranging between 10.36% and 15.78%. An additional 96% tariff rise may be on the horizon in the spring.

The complaint, brought forward by 7 American OCTG producers and the United Steelworkers (USW) - a very powerful labour union - was not the first time the U.S. steel industry got its way. In 2002, the George W. Bush administration, under political pressure from Congress, imposed a 30% tariff on steel imports from major European and Asian partners (although it was lifted the next year.)

This case itself is, on the surface, a typical trade dispute.

The USW and the producers allege that Chinese producers benefit from massive government subsidies and dumping margins ranging from 40 to 90 percent. According to the USW, the increase in Chinese imports of steel pipes are made worse by the global recession that increased the impact on jobs in the steel and pipe manufacturing sector. USW president, Leo Gerard, claims that 2,400 jobs have been lost as a result since the beginning of 2009. Considering the OCTG industry employs roughly 6000 workers, this represents about 40% of jobs, a sizable figure indeed.

The Chinese, for their part, blame the loss of jobs on external factors they claim are totally out of their control. Daniel Porter, a lawyer representing the Chinese steel exporters, said the U.S. OCTG industry was hurt by a boom-and-bust cycle that resulted when the price of oil soared to about $140 a barrel in the summer of 2008, only to drop below $50 less than a year later. Higher oil prices spurred more drilling, which caused oil companies to order more of the pipes. Those orders dried up when prices fell, causing a drop in demand for steel pipes. Which "has nothing to do with imports”according to Porter.

But under the surface, this seemingly minor trade irritant may be a harbinger of bigger problems to come as a result of the massive structural problems in both economies.

On the U.S. side, the debt burden is clearly unsustainable, and there is no doubt that for the economy to recover sustainably, it will have to produce more than it consumes. This means exporting more than it imports which would reduce the current account deficit. In this light, it seems like a sensible strategy to curb Chinese imports taking jobs and market share away from U.S. workers and firms (Paul Krugman estimates 1.4 million jobs lost to Chinese mercantilist policies.) But what if the U.S. is protecting the wrong industry? What if its comparative advantage in steel and steel-byproducts production, is no longer there? This report by Howard F. Rosen reveals just that. The U.S. should be focusing on restructuring its economic machine towards goods and services it can export as a result of its competitive advantage, not defending an industry that is no longer competitive - textbook 101 economics and the therapy U.S. trade officials and economists have been preaching to the world for decades.

On the Chinese side, the problem is one of excess capacity created by the same mercantilist policies that are hurting other economies. A devalued currency in combination with inefficient state-owned and/or heavily subsidized exporting firms are causing more to be produced than can be sold on world markets. This means that should Western markets (especially the U.S.) further cut-back on Chinese imports in a bid to recalibrate their fiscal and trade balances - which they will inevitably have to do - Chinese exporters would be in even more trouble. These firms would inevitably have to shut down and lay off workers - not something China's rulers want to see. All the more reason for China to commit to creating a domestic market base at a faster rate, which will only come when the average Chinese consumer begins to save less and spend more.

(photo from Technosoft Resources)

Islamic Calvinism

2009-12-30T09:22:00.007-05:00

This is a report that one of my professors last summer, Kemal Kirisci, indicated to the class. The report discusess what has been dubbed Islamic Calvinism in the Kayseri region of Turkey. Although this report is a few years old, I think its becoming relevant now more than ever especially with the AKP taking initiative and focusing its policy more on the east, while at the same time promoting neoliberalism, and modernization. There is no doubt in my mind that a new kind of Islam is and has been actualizing in Turkey, a progressive Islam that will play a large role in the future of regional diplomacy.

Executive Summary:
Among Europeans who are sceptical of Turkish membership of the European Union, it is common to hear the view that Turkey has two souls, only one of which is Western. They contrast the cosmopolitan outlook of Istanbul with the vast Turkish interior, which is seen as backward, impoverished and 'non-European' in its values. Central Anatolia, with its rural economy and patriarchal, Islamic culture, is seen as the heartland of this 'other' Turkey. Yet in recent years, it has witnessed an economic miracle that has turned a number of former trading towns into prosperous manufacturing centres. This new prosperity has led to a transformation of traditional values and a new cultural outlook that embraces hard work, entrepreneurship and development. While Anatolia remains a socially conservative and religious society, it is also undergoing what some have called a 'Quiet Islamic Reformation'. Many of Kayseri's business leaders even attribute their economic success to their 'protestant work ethic'.

This report explores these social and economic changes in the Central Anatolian province of Kayseri, home to one million people. It presents detailed case studies of a number of strategic sectors: the emergence of Kayseri as Turkey's leading cluster of furniture manufacturers; the rise of Orta Anadolu, producing one percent of the world's denim; and the success of the Kayseri sugar refinery and its impact on local agriculture. These case studies illustrate how industrial capitalism emerged from a predominantly rural and merchant society within a single generation. They also demonstrate how policy failures by successive governments caused the 1990s to be a 'lost decade', and how the economic crisis of 2000/01 and the structural reforms which followed it have marked a decisive turning point for the Turkish economy.

The report also explores how over the past decade individualistic, pro-business currents have become prominent within Turkish Islam. It looks closer at Kayseri's most successful small town, the industrial district of Hacilar, whose 20,000 inhabitants have given birth to 9 out of Turkey's top 500 companies. It finally examines the position of women in this evolving Anatolian society, and why this could prove to be the Achilles heel of continued rapid development.

Today's governing party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah Gul (Kayseri's most prominent politician), and its political philosophy of 'democratic conservatism', are very popular in Central Anatolia. AKP's Kayseri headquarters was one of its first to be established, and in the 2004 municipal elections in Kayseri it won an overwhelming majority of 70 percent, its highest in the country. Democratic conservatism embraces many goals reminiscent of centrist political parties across Europe.

The report concludes that economic success and social development have created a milieu in which Islam and modernity coexist comfortably. It is the Anatolia shaped by these values that is now pressing its case to join the European Union.

Comments:

Yeni Şafak, Davut Dursun, 24.01.2006, Islamic Calvinists...
Now, in Turkey, it is this report which is being debated.
The report tries to tell Europeans "there is nothing to be afraid about; this is not a clash between Anatolia and the West". The question the report probably tries to answer is: Can one be at once religious, rich/entrepreneurial, and European?

Milliyet, Taha Akyol, 27.01.2006, Islamic Calvinists!
Many movements which the Kemalist tradition in Turkey think are fundamentalist contain the dynamics of sociological modernism similar to the [Calvinist movement]. There is a reason that they are more liberal, open to the world and economic rationalists than the statist secularists.

Hürriyet, 30.01.2006, The comparison of Kayserians with Calvinists is very true
Abdullah Gül: "The name of this concept is Calvinism in Christianity. In different religions it has different names. They compare the sociological situation in Kayseri to this. They explain it in this way. It is very true."

Süddeutsche Zeitung, Kai Strittmatter, 13.06.2006, Rewarding pious diligence
Kayseri’s entrepreneurs are an excellent case study into - of all things - [Max] Weber's theses on Protestants: pious und ascetic, yes, but also diligent, frugal, solidary and investing with an eye for the future.

A big howl went through the country when ESI’s report was published: On one end of the spectrum, die-hard seculars who would not have it that pious people can be economically successful and on the other end religious fundamentalists who suspected a clandestine Christian proselytization effort. Kayseri’s entrepreneurs, however, understood the praise. No one less than Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül – prominent son of the city – declared himself a proud Islamic Calvinist.

(Photo from templeton-cambridge.org)

The National Security Council’s veil comes off

2009-12-29T21:07:00.019-05:00

After indicting the AK Party in 2008 and falling short of disbanding it for attempting to remove the ban on head scarves, the National Security Council (MGK) has finally removed its own veil. Civilian prosecutors investigating the Ankara headquarters of the Tactical Mobilization Group last weekend turned something that was once inconceivable, into a reality.

From its establishment following the coup of infamous Prime Minister Menderes in 1960, the MGK has had the self-endowed purpose of preserving the secular and nationalist nature of Kemalism– modern Turkey’s political life force. Since, the MGK has extended its influence over government policy, counter-terrorism (which due to the definition of national security is more broad than we’d think), and suppressing the resurgence of political Islamist elements in the government. The last extension has no doubt confronted the AKP on many occasions, as most of its members had once been members of a reformist Islamic party.

EU reforms however, which the military has supported, have stripped the council of some of its political influence. One of those has been an amendment to Article 5918 of the Turkish Penal Code, which allows military personnel to be tried in civilian courts and prevents civilian prosecution in military courts (Today’s Zaman, Dec, 29, 2009).

This amendment made the first ever civilian investigation of the Turkish General Staff (TSK)this past Saturday and Sunday possible. The search of the Special Forces Command was not only symbolic of a legal precedent however. With a history of counter-government assassination attempts and successes, criminal organizations like Ergenekon (established to overthrow the AKP), and coup attempts, the face behind the veil isn’t exactly alluring. The main purpose of the investigation last weekend was to investigate an assassination plot on Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç’s life. An attempt no doubt linked to the boycotting by Turkish force commanders of a Children’s day celebration in 2003 co-hosted by the headscarved Mrs. Arınç. At a subsequent MGK meeting, it accused the AKP government of fostering links to fundamentalist organizations, a suspicion that is evidently still ongoing and has caused increased their resentment of Bülent Arınç’s conservative views:

"I worry when people stick 'ism' and 'ist' on the end of words. Islam is good. Islamism isn't. Ataturk is good. But those who exploit his memory by calling themselves Kemalists are not. Ataturk was a mortal, not a demi-god.... Secularism means freedom. The West is secular, but not secularist." (Al Majalla Magazine, Nov. 26, 2009)

So what does Prime Minister Erdoğan make of the investigation?
Today’s Zaman reports him as saying:

"Nobody will benefit from showing as if there were problems between the institutions. Whoever commits a crime, he/she will be brought to justice. As politicians, we fulfil our responsibilities under the law. An entire institution should not be blamed for the mistakes of individuals. Nobody has the right to hurt the peace in the country with rumours and allegations ... Will the status quo continue or change? The government thinks that it should be changed." (Dec. 29, 2009)

This is a reserved statement given that the mistakes of individuals almost disbanded Erdoğan’s party, assassinated his deputy and ousted his government. However, maybe this optimism and delicacy is exactly what’s needed to improve relations, and perhaps stop the formulation of mistakes within the council.

The changing relations between the National Security Council and the ruling AK Party have a large stake in Turkey’s changing foreign policy (refer to Iyad’s November 28th post). After the security agreement between Turkey and Syria and the cancelation of the Anatolian Eagle military exercise with the U.S and Israel, Turkey has asserted a new comprehensive and multilateral strategy. Sometime after a minister was assigned to take care of EU affairs, aspirations of ascension and maximum western cooperation, although still present, took a backseat to the Turkish national trajectory. At least one of two things must be true to have made this transition possible: (1) EU reforms reduced the power of the military body to intervene in the AKP’s “new” eastern-focusing policy stream; or (2) some proportion of the TSK has warmed up to the AKP’s policy trajectory, not out of Islamist sympathy, but from a newly intensified regional interest and the rising diplomatic, political and economic potential of Turkey in the east. This is apparent in the wake of improving Turkish-Armenian and Turkish-Greek relations, the arousal of Public sentiment after the Davos economic forum (who’s focus was sharply turned to the Israeli Operation Cast Lead), and stronger economic and security ties with both Syria and Iraq.

The National Security Council of Turkey is finding itself in a position that historically would have never been anticipated. Whether the nature of military-AKP relations progresses to be hostile and bitter, cooperative, or maybe both –marked by an internally conflicting military– will determine Turkey’s main domestic focus as it pursues a new chapter on the international scene.

(Photo from worldbulletin.net)

Snacks for Thought: December 23, 2009

2009-12-23T12:13:00.002-05:00

Is Russia the answer to a rejuvenated West?
Turkey's increasing presence in the Middle East: neo-Ottomanism or neoliberal engagement?
Syria's economy coming in from the cold
Getting the Chinese consumers to compete with their American counterpart will take some time

Winds of change in the Middle East

2009-11-28T14:50:00.005-05:00

Read and reflect on this interesting analysis by a former British Intelligence Agent on the shifting geopolitics of the Middle East. What this will mean for the Israeli-Arab 'peace process'(if that expression can still be uttered with a serious face), Western policies in the region, the involvement of non-Western rising powers such as China, Russia, Brazil and India, and the future of inter-Arab politics, is still up in the air at this point.

But perhaps the most important question for me when I read the piece is whether it is analytically honest and correct to speak of a 'northern' vs. 'southern' paradigm in the region? I'm going to think about this myself for a bit longer.

Either way when Condoliza Rice spoke of a 'New Middle East', I doubt she was referring to whatever is starting to take shape now.

GA on hold for a bit

2009-11-12T19:13:00.002-05:00

Fellow readers, as you have surely noticed blogging has slowed to a grind in the past few months. Rest assured that blogging activity will return to normal in a few weeks. Blogs will be sporadic and few-and-far-between until then.

What happened to Obama's pragmatism?

2009-10-11T19:57:00.010-04:00

The fact that a president with an unprecedented level of support, both nationally and internationally, takes charge of America's highest public office is no guarantee for a successful presidency.

I for one, have nothing but admiration for Obama the Man, but whether Obama the President can live up to the expectations thrust upon his shoulders by the superstar aura that so naturally comes to him is another question altogether.

Now I am by far not the first, nor even the millionth, to be bringing up the 'expectations vs results' dilemma. The more expectations you have to succeed, the more pressure is on you to demonstrable concrete results. And this usually means that your adversaries are all the more determined to see you fail.

This is all the more reason to question Obama's decision to bring up the military's controversial Don't Ask Don't Tell Policy regarding gays and lesbians. I have nothing against supporting gay rights, but as one of Obama's supporters, I want to see him succeed.

When the President is facing such a difficult environment at home (see economic crisis and health reform), complex problem abroad (see a stalled Middle East Peace Process, the continuing saga of the Iranian nuclear crisis, and a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan), and when the Right is fighting tooth-and-nail to delegitimize him, the last thing he should want to do is create opportunities for his adversaries to unite around.

It could very well be that Obama and his team have come out in favour of rescinding the Don't Ask Don't Tell Policy for exactly this reason: to rally liberals and progressives at a time when the right is increasingly vocal and unwilling to compromise. But for a president who approaches governing from a centrist philosophy of pragmatism, it would not change the fact that Obama already has much on his plate to chew, and adding another controversial issue on his convoluted policy agenda simply doesn't seem very 'pragmatic' at this point in time.

(Photo from AP)

Guerrilla diplomacy in an increasingly complex international system

2009-09-24T00:48:00.006-04:00

To start off, my apologies for the low blogging activity lately, I am absolutely swamped with work and with academic requirements.

Nonetheless, I would like to turn your attention to Daryl Copeland, a most interesting diplomat/scholar. I encourage you to get a hold of his new book 'Guerrilla Diplomacy: Rethinking International Relations', or read some reviews.

I attended one of his talks today at the University of Ottawa. He was quite engaging and offered some fresh insights into the state of the diplomatic discipline.

Well, he essentially echoed what many of us 'non-diplomats' already suspected - diplomacy is hurting, and its hurting real bad. As he puts it, "diplomacy does not have a very good reputation today" because not only is the practice seen by many as ineffectual in an increasingly militarized international policy setting, but diplomats themselves no longer understand what diplomacy really is.

In his opinion, the only hope for saving this ailing profession is to radically overhaul the current diplomatic business model and more creatively using the diplomatic resources at our disposal. The Guerrilla Diplomat is his answer. Read here to find out what he's talking about.

The end of GDP? Not quite but lets reconsider

2009-09-15T21:31:00.006-04:00

Joseph Stiglitz has an interesting piece regarding the effectiveness of our current GDP-heavy economic measurement approach to public policy. But Stiglitz is not implying the 'end of GDP' as a crucial measure for public policy - at least I hope he's not. As he says after all:

'The fact that GDP may be a poor measure of well-being, or even of market activity, has, of course, long been recognized.'

And we still use the measure because it does reveal crucial data about the state, structure and direction of an economy (when measured correctly.)

What he is getting at is that over-reliance on GDP-based public policy will cause more problems as the fundamental structures of the global economy continue to change, and as the ramifications of economic growth are increasingly felt on the environment and other areas of our lives.

As he puts it:

'If we have poor measures, what we strive to do (say, increase GDP) may actually contribute to a worsening of living standards. We may also be confronted with false choices, seeing trade-offs between output and environmental protection that don’t exist. '

which causes conflict when,

'political leaders are told to maximize it, but citizens also demand that attention be paid to enhancing security, reducing air, water, and noise pollution, and so forth – all of which might lower GDP growth.'

Well these tensions are only going to become more pronounced as capital, labour, technology and ideas increasingly escape the control of state sovereignty in a globalizing world.

In this respect, improving our measurement approaches to public policy is a great start to be sure, but I feel that the number-one priority should be for states and stakeholders to come together through formal and informal mechanisms to 'talk' and craft shared visions for public policy issues on a more global level.

The debate is a very complex one to be sure. But to me, if public policy in the 'hyperconnected' 21st century is going to meet the global challenges that confront us, it seems almost imperative that global governance mechanisms would be the most logical and effective means to bring about real and sustainable advances in socio-economic wellbeing.

But i'll stop here since I feel I am now pushing the debate beyond what Mr. Stiglitz intended.

Putin's indirect advice to Obama

2009-09-10T20:15:00.008-04:00

Prime Minister Putin, of Russia, isn't happy with the competitiveness of Russia's industrial sector. So he simply opts to 'tell' engineers and business-leaders to be more productive. The man certainly has a right to demand that government payouts are used wisely to spur efficiency, innovation and quality products.

Putin is pulling the name-and-shame trick out of his magician's hat.

But while Mr. Putin is at it, he could also just 'tell' Russians to start having more babies, considering Russia's declining demographics and the threat this poses for the country's economic prospects.

Maybe Obama should do the same thing and just 'tell' the American automakers to improve their competitiveness, and scold the healthcare sector into becoming more efficient and freeing-up money for his reform agenda.

See how simple things are on the other side of the world, why do American's have to make everything so complicated?

Snacks for Thought: August 31, 2009

2009-08-30T11:30:00.003-04:00

Snacks for thought presents thought provoking news, analysis and debates from around cyberspace.

Do private schools ultimately harm a society's educational system?
Three possible scenarios for global geopolitics after the economic crisis.
China's not-so-subtle message to India.
The dark side of Dubai.
Israeli saber-rattling against Iran and its history of unilateral military actions.

New article on American Foreign Policy

2009-08-26T13:07:00.003-04:00

Hey everyone, I encourage you to check out my new article published today by The Atlantic Community.

Knowledge and its discontents in the Islamic World

2009-08-21T12:44:00.015-04:00

Al Jazeera's Arabic language satellite feed featured an interesting debate the other day. A talk show, called al-Itijah al-Mouaakes (Cross Current), features opposite and competing arguments to issues of interest to Arabs and the Middle Eastern region in general. The theme of this particular show was 'public sex education' - a controversial topic in the culturally and religiously conservative region.

The point that struck me was not the debate on the topic itself (although interesting to be sure), but how fast the conversation shifted from whether public sex education was a good or bad thing, to a heated argument on the merits of the sources used to understand human sexuality in the first place.

The debaters were as far apart in their opinions as they were in their backgrounds and qualifications. One was a religious professor at Egypt's famed Al-Azhar University - widely regarded as the heart of Islamic learning in the world; the other a secular Egyptian intellectual and medical researcher.

The Islamic scholar argued that Islamic texts, traditions, and culture, provided ample answers to the modern problems and questions of human sexuality required to ensure the healthy, and above all, "moral" preservation of society. The secular researcher would have none of it, and fervently defended his position: secular knowledge has evolved in the past centuries to tackle complex issues and problems about the world we live in that traditional sources of knowledge could no longer adequately answer - sexology was a byproduct of this phenomenon and should be embraced, not rejected.

The show ended with both debaters no closer - and by all accounts, even farther - from reaching a concensus than when they had started. But what is the relevance of this story?

For me, the debate was reflective of the overall struggle for knowledge, and power, existing between two social groups in the Middle East. Claiming authoritative knowledge determines who does the research, for what aims, and how it is interpreted and ultimatelly applied. Secularists will continue to deny the legitimacy of many traditional sources of knowledge to answer modern problems of the social world we live in. Traditionalists will relentlessly accuse secular knowledge to be innaplicable to Islamic norms, values and social order at best, and as a cunning ploy by the West for internal domination of the Islamic world at worst.

add-on: some broad comparisons can be made with the Big-Bang vs. Creationism controversy that was raging in the American public education system.

Slow on the blogging this month!!

2009-08-16T20:33:00.003-04:00

This month has been really hectic with academic and professional engagements. Blogging will naturally be very sporadic and few-and-far between in the meantime.

Postings should pick up in September I hope.

China Cursed the Middle East

2009-08-04T22:31:00.019-04:00

The legendary journalist and Middle East expert, Robert Fisk, asks a question that is surely on the minds of millions: why is the region finding it so difficult to shake off its melancholy and embrace the fruits of peace, economic development, and modernity?

Well Mr. fisk, I will tell you the answer, but you must promise to keep it between me, you, and the millions of internet users around the world.

The ills of the Middle East started when the Chinese cursed the region ions ago. Yes that's right. Confucius is probably behind the region's troubles. So much for Samuel Huntington's theory of an Islamic-Confucian civilizational alliance. The real fact of the matter is that the Chinese have always been jealous of Middle Easterners for some - still obscure - reason.

Many people have heard of the Chinese curse, "may you live in interesting times." But what is less known to most is the rest of it; "may you fall under the eyes of the authorities" and "may you find what you are looking for."

Do you see the connection yet? No? Allow me to explain.

"May you live in interesting times"

Well, this one is pretty self explanatory. What region of the world is more volatile, or 'interesting', than the Middle East today?

But believe me, from my frequent trips to the region, the majority of Middle Easterners would trade their 'interesting region' for the mellow, ordered, and predictable lives of a Swede, Norwegian or Swiss, any day.

"May you fall under the eyes of the authorities"

Contemporary Middle Easterners have grown up under the tender and big-brother watch (insert sarcasm here) of their respective governments for decades. As a matter of fact, these governments are so good at 'taking care' of the 'best interests' of their citizens that their citizens vote them into office year after year, decade after decade. But Middle Easterners probably wish the authorities could be a tad less concerned about them, and allow them to look after and think for themselves once in while.

"May you find what you are looking for"

Black Gold under the desert. Now that is something the Arabs never saw coming. The majority probably wish they still never had. The resource curse isn't just a fancy academic concept. Just ask Iraqis today. How you ever met a genie that grants infinite riches free of charge?

So the next time the world asks why the Middle East is hurting today, or why it can't seem to get its act together, the answer lies not in colonial Europe, Israeli expansionism, or radical Islam. The responsibility lies with those jealous and ill-wishing Chinese!

NATO PR Campaign

2009-07-28T11:55:00.006-04:00

NATO is trying to revitalize its image by stressing the importance of the alliance's core values and connect with younger people. Here is an example of this initiative via YouTube.

Comments are welcome and encouraged as usual.

Snacks for Thought: July 21, 2009

2009-07-21T10:03:00.006-04:00

Snacks for Thought is a weekly round-up of thought provoking news, commentaries and opinions from around the web.

Although this is a joke, AIDS's impact on human life, economies and entire cultures isn't.
Microsoft experiments with price elasticity in the midst of the economic crisis. Will it work?
Which way should U.S. foreign policy go? Let the debates begin.
Israeli settlements are pretty costly for the Israeli taxpayers: nobody said colonialism was cheap.
The Arab world's plethora of problems is nothing new.

Fly mighty eagle...fly...?

2009-07-18T23:10:00.002-04:00

Today, America's eagle perches lonely, confused, and distraught at the tip of the global pyramid. It was not always this way. Back in 1947, with America emerging from the death and destruction of World War 2 as the newly crowned leader of the Free World, a young and astute diplomat by the name of George Kennan wrote the following in his infamous article 'X':

Soviet pressure against the free institutions of the Western world is something that can be contained by the adroit and vigilant application of counterforce at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and maneuvers of Soviet policy, but which cannot be charmed or talked out of existence.

The excerpt is highly revealing, and helps make sense of America's foreign policy decisions for the next four decades. First, Kennan identifies the threat as 'Soviet pressure against the Western world', and by doing this provides a clear focal point for American cognitive, diplomatic and material resources. Secondly, he proposes a strategic plan for applying power via a Newtonian logic of action and reaction. Wherever Soviet pressures posed a direct and credible threat to American interests, the U.S. would apply a countervailing force to neutralize and possibility scale back Moscow's influence. Third, the operational theater was purposely kept fluid and vague because the struggle was understood to be of global proportions. Geopolitical hotspots focused on countries with ambivalent or uncommitted political loyalties to Washington or Moscow.

It is fascinating that this short excerpt can encapsulate so clearly American grand strategy for the next four decades. The message was clear: containment of Soviet expansionary pressures must be counteracted, but only in limited geographic 'pressure points', and with manageable effects on world and regional instability. Everybody, friend and foe alike, knew their role, understood the rules, and clearly understood the potentially disastrous consequences for breaking them - Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD.)

CIA and Western intelligence operatives played a sometimes dangerous, always twisted, and occasionally comical, game of cat and mouse with their KGB counterparts in almost every corner of the globe. But fundamentally, both sides committed to the rules of the game. In an ironic way, Kennan's containment policy was helpful for Soviets as well. It drew clear lines in the sand. Some areas were fair play for competition, others were absolute red lines. If the message wasn't clear enough, the Cuban missile crisis reiterated that fact in no uncertain terms.

But unless you've been living on Mars, the Cold War is over, the Soviets are history, and America is the only superpower standing. Its navy freely navigates and polices the seas, its economic system has been adopted by its former Communist adversaries, and its economy and military spending dwarf those of its closest competitors. Despite all this, America has no discernible grand strategy to speak of today.

Many strategic thinkers, both within and outside the American government, are no-doubt nostalgic for the days of bipolarity (two superpowers.) Things were much simpler then. As long as the Communism and Soviet threat remained, policy differences were a matter of style over substance.

But two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, America's eagle is confused and distraught. Debilitating wars abroad, a plummeting international image, gargantuan domestic economic problems, and increasingly confused military and diplomatic establishments, all underwrite the sorry state of contemporary American grand strategy. America seems to be wondering aimlessly with diminishing friends and increased resistance to its power around the world.

The fundamental problem lies in Washington's inability, or unwillingness, to respond to the changing nature of international relations. New powers are emerging on every continent demanding more autonomy, more respect, and a louder voice in the management of the planet's affairs. The Chinese, Indians, and Russians are pushing for a gradual shift away from the dollar and to a new international reserve currency. The Europeans are looking to solidify their political union in order to capitalize on the growing economic power of the continent. Brazil is becoming the unquestioned regional leader in South America - once America's jealously guarded 'strategic back yard.' Saudi Arabia and Iran are both cognizant of America's waning capabilities and influence, and have started taking more assertive stances in the Middle East.

If America is to regain its swagger, it will have to base its foreign policy on an entirely new grand strategy. This strategy will have to take into consideration America's capabilities and aspirations on one hand, and the capabilities and aspirations of the emerging powers on the other. America's fundamental geopolitical and geoeconomic interests need not be compromised in the process. On the contrary, reliance on diplomacy, cultural exchanges, scientific engagement, aid, and above all...humility, will go a long way towards engendering the kind of good-will and trust that will allow America to adopt a more flexible approach to international relations. Brute force, and an over-reliance on military power should only be considered a last resort.

It is heartening to see Obama desperately trying to turn the tide. He has spoken of order above idealist adventurism, and democracy by persuasion as opposed to gun barrels. He has steered away from dictating, and has spoken of shared responsibilities - basically telling countries such as China to try and handle all the international responsibility they could stomach. He seems cognizant of the fact that the Neoconservative dream for an unrivaled 'American century' is simply inaplicable to today's international environment. Regardless of its superiority in military and economic power, America cannot continue operating as if it was business as usual. America must once again become 'in' and not merely 'of' the international community.

Obama has kicked off his young presidency with a massive public relations campaign spearheaded by a number of historic speeches in Cairo and Ghana, among others. His political capital is unprecedented and it will be very difficult for foreign governments to say no to him if he comes to the table with sensible proposals for collaboration and shared commitments to make the world a better place. Climate change, peace in the Middle East, democracy and human rights, and the global economy, as well as a range of international issues are problems looking for solutions. America, after experiencing the debilitating policies of the Neoconservatives on climate change, the War on Terror and nuclear non-proliferation, can mitigate the harm done to its reputation and interests across the world. What Washington needs is a bipartisan commitment to turn rhetoric into action, and action into progress on a number of international policy tracts.

It is no longer beneficial for America to try to preserve its Eagle's superior, but increasingly lonely, position at the helm of the global power hierarchy. Getting it to fly again is what American grand strategy should really aim for, and this cannot be done without help from emerging powers. The question is, can Washington muster the political will to enter into a complicated grand bargain with the rest of the international community - as messy and complicated as this may be?

The French Revolution & Institutional Reforms

2009-07-12T10:11:00.005-04:00

Here is a very interesting piece of research that analyzes the economic effects of the French revolution on other countries in Europe. I'm going to sum up the points that I found most interesting:

The package of reforms the French imposed on areas they conquered included the civil code, the abolition of guilds and the remnants of feudalism, the introduction of equality before the law, and the undermining of aristocratic privilege.
Overall, our results show no evidence that the reforms imposed by the French had negative economic consequences. On the contrary, there is fairly consistent evidence from a variety of different empirical strategies that they had positive effects. In particular, our results are strongest for the later part of the nineteenth century, which we see as evidence for the fact that French-induced reforms created an environment favourable to the Industrial Revolution, which reached Continental Europe precisely in those decades.
Why did these reforms work when other externally-imposed reforms often fail? One possibility...is that its success may have been due to the fact that the reforms it imposed were much more radical than is typically the case. Many reforms fail because they are de facto reversed shortly after the implementation... The French, instead, reformed simultaneously several aspects of economic, social and political institutions of the “ancient regime” of Europe, thereby significantly weakening the powers of local elites and making a return to the status quo ante largely impossible.

Economic overview of BRIC countries

2009-07-09T15:12:00.013-04:00

Here is an overview of the economic performance of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China) in the current global crisis. This should give us an idea of the economic health and future outlook of the world's leading emerging markets. Keeping an eye on these four economies is especially important considering the share of world GDP that they account for (close to 15%.) Since Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'neill coined the term 'BRIC' a few years back, the world has been waiting and watching to see if the big four will live up to the expectations thrust upon their shoulders by international investors and companies looking to take advantage of profit opportunites.

China

Growth pulled back from an extraordinary 13% in 2007 to 9% in 2008. This was the lowest rate since 2002. The IMF projects growth to slow to 6.5% in 2009 before picking up again to 7.5% next year.

China's heavy reliance on export-led development made it especially vulnerable to the contraction in global demand. Fortunately, the government had saved much of its revenue in foreign exchange reserves (exceeding US $2 trillion at one point) and was able to respond with massive liquidity injections into the economy to offset the large drop in exports.

In the absence of significant aggregate demand recovery in developing countries - especially the U.S. - China is reconsidering its export-led growth strategy and looking to stimulate domestic consumer demand. But as previously touched upon here and here, the problem for Chinese planners is not simply one of fiscal and monetary policy. It is a social policy problem. How to change the 'culture of thrift' among the masses and turn them into spending machines. China's tumultuous contemporary history has forced many Chinese to follow a rigid doctrine of 'work hard' and 'save your shiny penny for the rainy day'. Changing society's risk-averse spending habits will not be an easy task.

India

The IMF predicts the Indian economy will slow its growth to 4.5% for 2009 before picking up slightly to 5.6% for 2010. The Indian ruling party (Indian National Congress) has won a strong mandate to govern in the recent federal elections. This should ensure the Congress's ability to continue moving forward - albeit at a gradual and careful pace - with its liberalization and reform measures for the economy.

A growing Indian middle class is responsible for increased import demands which has increased the current account deficit. On the export side, India is majorly reliant on Chinese demand for primary resources such as steel and minerals to feed China's industrialization boom. India is well aware of its junior partner position with respect to China, this is a motivating reason pushing it to diversify its economic links with the outside world in order to offset China's increasing economic power.

Brazil

The IMF predicts an economic contraction of -1.3% in 2009 before resuming growth at 2.2% in 2010. But Brazil is likely to make it out of the crisis in relatively good shape and without too much deterioration in its economic fundamentals. This is largely due to the government's fiscal prudence over the years, and its 'old fashioned' regulation policies which have kept banks in line and away from adventurism into risky waters of global finance. Exports have taken a hit like all countries, but much like China, government policies to stimulate the domestic economy have been quick and substantive. This has led to a deterioration in its fiscal position but should not be a cause of investor panic, if anything because most governments around the world are in the same boat.

Brazil has also been one of the most outspoken advocators of global financial coordination and reform of international institutions. It has used its relative position of strength amidst the recent global problems to push the case of developing countries for more democratic and equal decision-making power within international organizations.

Russia

Russia has undoubtedly been the hardest hit of the BRICs from the global crisis. The IMF predicts a -6.5% contraction in 2009, before growth picks up by 1.5% in 2010. Their are two main reasons for this large economic deterioration. First, Russian banks and companies were highly integrated into Western financial markets and as a result exposed to toxic assets. Secondly, the Russian government's primary source of revenue comes from exports of oil, which suffered large price drops on international markets.

The Russian government is trying to comfort its citizens and pledges that a repeat of the 1998 crisis, in which millions of Russian lost their life savings, will not be forthcoming. Russia's policy so far has been to focus on supporting banks and enterprises in need of financing by targeting those deemed most essential to the economic prosperity of the nation. The total amounts contributed as of April 2009 amounted to 6.7% of GDP - more than most G-20 government interventions so far.

Snacks for Thought: July 5, 2009

2009-07-05T11:52:00.002-04:00

Snacks for thought is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking news, commentaries and opinions.

In typical economist fashion, Brad Delong can't seem to make up his mind on whether to blame Alan Greespan's low-interest rate policy prior to the crisis.
Another piece on America's power decline in the world and how to deal with it.
A rable land and global food security: creeping colonialism?
Wall Mart: where everyday low prices mean more jobs for the faithful
Sweet-talkers beware!!!
Costa-Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica top the list of the good life survey.

International relations, political economy and history from an unlikely source

2009-07-02T08:42:00.008-04:00

The FBI released more documents of its interviews with Saddam Hussein prior to the dictator's transfer to Iraqi control and ultimate execution.

The information released in the documents is golden. Saddam Hussein discusses many issues, ranging from international relations, to political economy and development, to history and personal relations.

He was clearly squeezed out of every available piece of information before being sent to the gallows. His accounts will be incorporated into many books on Iraqi and Middle Eastern affairs in the future I am sure.

Here is the link to 27 declassified FBI documents for those of you interested.

Happy Canada Day!!

2009-07-01T18:29:00.004-04:00

To all of my fellow Canucks. Enjoy the party and stay safe!

Snacks for Thought: June 28, 2009

2009-06-28T13:20:00.002-04:00

Snacks for thought is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking news, commentaries and opinions.

Want to be a professional 'threat-mongerer'? Find out how here.
U.S. consumers: from the 'paradox of gluttony' to the 'paradox of thrift?'
The 'relativity' of freedom.
Forget paint-ball, this is the real deal!
For great powers, Central Asia is a femme fatal; so seductive it kills.

It's time for a sensible policy towards Hamas

2009-06-27T15:33:00.005-04:00

The following article is a guest contribution and does not necessarily reflect the point of view of the editor or anyone else associated with this blog.

The apparent victory of Iranian President Ahmadinejad has created uncomfortable questions about what it means to support democracy in the Middle East. Similarly, while the defeat of Hezbollah in the recent Lebanese elections was widely perceived as evidence that democracy may actually be a worthwhile venture, what would have happened if Hezbollah had emerged triumphant, as it nearly did? Renewed public interest in this subject provides a unique opportunity to finally establish a Canadian foreign policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on realistic politics, not rhetorical posturing. Especially as Canada’s international partners rush to embrace diplomacy and dialogue as the new rules of the game, the question begs to be asked: does current Canadian policy towards Hamas make sense?

After Hamas won the Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, many Western countries found themselves in the awkward position of having endorsed a democratic process that produced a winner widely considered to be a terrorist organization. Unfortunately, Canada followed the unimaginative example of other countries, refusing to recognize Hamas as the legitimate leadership of the Palestinians and simply ignoring their democratic credentials. First, this revealed that Canadian support for democracy had been functionalized; in other words, the extension of democratic rule in the Middle East is to be encouraged only as long as ‘we’ like the results. Second, Canada was left without a legitimate Palestinian partner, inhibiting the development of coherent policies on both complex and mundane issues, such as how to induce Hamas to recognize Israel or how to effectively distribute humanitarian assistance in Gaza. Third, this approach undermined international efforts to facilitate the establishment of an equitable peace settlement between Israelis and Palestinians.

At the time of the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords, Hamas was supported by only 15% of Palestinians. Hamas has since gained popularity – and power – because of the corrupt incompetence of its political predecessors. Hamas also operates various social and humanitarian services which have become increasingly vital to Palestinian society due to international economic strangulation. Finally, many decades of Palestinian suffering under domination and occupation have created a volatile mood of anger and frustration that Hamas represents. Hamas has thus become a fixture in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that can no longer be ignored. Accepting the role of Hamas is necessary to politicize the Palestinian struggle, a process which will serve as an impetus for Palestinian aspirations to be channeled through the ballot, not the bullet.

Encouragingly, Hamas leaders have already declared their willingness to accept a settlement based on a Palestinian state in the pre-1967 borders of the West Bank and Gaza. By incorporating Hamas into the international system, Canada can nurture such pragmatic qualities by using incentives to encourage moderation and punitive measures to discourage militarization.

A framework of direct and unconditional engagement with Hamas does not diminish Canadian opposition to terrorism. The violence employed by Hamas is rightly condemned as morally repugnant and politically counterproductive. But it is problematic when the international community reduces the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an issue of terrorism, not of human rights. Beyond the shroud of terrorism is the ultimate tragedy of the Palestinian people. A foreign policy exclusively fixated on terrorism will collapse due to its own hysteria and Manichaean rigidity. In any case, if we accept the conventional definition of terrorism as indiscriminate violence against civilians in pursuit of political objectives, it becomes difficult to ignore the recent Israeli invasion of Gaza in pursuit of its own political objectives which left over 1,000 civilians dead.

The only way to diffuse this situation is through facilitating the realization of legitimate Palestinian aspirations while condemning the use of illegitimate tactics – that is, terrorism – to achieve these goals. This requires the destruction of the sanctimonious notion that Palestinians are ‘other than us’ – that they have some innate proclivity towards violence, or that they lack the sophistication to understand the democratic process. Hamas has been created by the wretched circumstances of the Palestinians, by the failure to achieve the basic (or ‘inalienable’) Palestinian right to statehood. So long as their national aspirations continue to be stifled, certain Palestinians will invariably conclude that violence is necessary to resist Israeli militaristic expansionism.

Canadians across the political spectrum should agitate for a foreign policy towards Hamas that is aligned with Canadian interests, and Canadian values. The development of diplomatic relations with the political wing of Hamas is a good place to start. Such boldness and vision may help Canada become a catalyst for change that can finally pierce the devastating cycle of terrorism and violence in the region.

(Paul Davis is a graduate student at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. He can be reached at paul.timothy.davis@gmail.com)

The unholy trinity: Iran, Afghanistan and the United States

2009-06-26T16:55:00.011-04:00

With all the coverage around events in Iran, I have yet to run across a serious analysis on the potential repercussions on Afghanistan and America's interests in the country. Caught between hyperbole idealism and starry-eyed liberalism, some have failed to understand the potential damage to U.S. and Afghan interests resulting from continued instability in Iran. Some voices have decried Obama's "week-kneed" response to the Iranian crisis. Allow me to explain why the President of the United States has carefully weighed his words on Iran.

Obama's 'timid' response to the crisis is highly influenced by his high-priority focus on Afghanistan and all the stakes that follow. It is not a secret that Obama trotted his way into the Oval Office with a desire to refocus American strategy from the unpopular Iraq war to the, less unpopular but just as tricky, Afghanistan conflict.

Reflecting his president's wishes for a change in direction, the military's new commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, has ordered a 60-day review of America's fighting and nation-building strategy and operations. His priorities list includes: improving the American military's image amongst Afghan civilians; shifting from an emphasis on drug 'eradication' to drug 'interdiction'; and coordinating with regional security and military forces to work on a more comprehensive and inclusive regional approach. General McChristal took the role in an atmosphere of thawing relations between Washington and Tehran.

Less than a month ago, at an international conference on Afghanistan that took place in the Hague, many saw glimmers of a possible rapprochement in Iranian-American cooperation. The Americans agreed to have Iranian diplomats attend, and the Iranians reciprocated by declaring their country was "fully prepared to participate in the projects aimed at combating drug trafficking and the plans in line with developing and reconstructing Afghanistan." A NATO spokesperson hailed the conference as "unprecedented" and lauded Iran's presence and "positive noises" with respect to Iran's statements.

Understanding the conference's outcome requires us to be aware of the overlapping interests between the two nations. Both administrations have much to gain if they can overcome their mutual distrust of one another, and bypass the entrenched domestic obstacles in their respective political systems.

Both will have to seriously consider rapprochement if they hope to achieve serious and sustainable progress in Afghanistan. The Afghan government has a hard enough time with its neighbour to the east, never mind pondering what kind of position it would find itself in if Tehran suddenly decides to 'stir the pot' as well.

We are rarely reminded that Iran has nearly 2,000,000 Afghan refugees - legal and illegal - currently residing in its territory. It is also rarely mentioned how important a role Iran plays in the economic development of Afghanistan by utilizing its road networks to provide the Afghan economy with consumer goods and export outlets. We are also hard-pressed to here about the effective role that Iran plays in countering - as best as possible under the current situation - the narcotics trade that crosses its borders on a daily basis. A role that the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has publicly praised on numerous occasions, and going as far as calling Iran's efforts a "massive sacrifice."

While popular media outlets such as Time magazine quotte misinformed American officials accusing Iran of supporting the insurgency in Afghanistan, other more judicious voices overlook the propaganda and bring forward constructive thinking. For example, while testifying before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Karim Sadjadpour identified three overlapping security and strategic interests that could easily set the stage for engagement between Tehran and Washington. These include:

Engaging Iran as a “responsible stakeholder” in Afghanistan. A strategy which has little cost and potentially enormous benefits.

Considering the Afghan refugees presence, Iran does not stand to gain from continued instability in Afghanistan. And given its violent history with the inherently anti-Shia Taliban, Tehran has no interest in seeing their resurgence.

With one of the highest rates of drug addiction in the world, Iran has a strong interest in seeing narcotics production in Afghanistan eradicated. Iran’s agricultural expertise could be enlisted to help Afghan farmers plant alternatives to opium poppies.

Writing only three weeks ago, George Gavrillis calls for an Af-Ir strategy (I know, it sounds likes half-ear but overlook that please.) He makes the argument that while USD $8 billion are earmarked for Pakistan to help it essentially behave more like Iran towards Afghanistan, the money would be a much better investment if Iranian cooperation could be harnessed in the West. This would reinforce Kabul's position with regards to the militant threats from the south and east of the country by giving it a powerful rear-guard political backer to its west. Now this option may not bode well for American interests in terms of zero-sum calculations, but it is worth remembering that unless the United States plans to stay in the country for decades, it will eventually have to accept strong Iranian-Afghan relations as a prerequisite for developing a sustainable Afghan regime that can survive in the volatile region.

Of course, any hope of this happening is pinned on Washington and Tehran coming together at the meeting table and engaging in hard bargaining in order to strike a mutually acceptable bargain in the region. If the new military leadership in Afghanistan has any chance of making on-the-ground progress during the small window of opportunity available, it will need the diplomatic channels to lead the way.

Stuck in the molasse is the fragile Afghan government, nervously following events in Iran, and probably secretly praying for America to muzzle its approach towards the Iranian regime in order to not derail the possibility for such a regional framework. Pakistan is more than enough for Afghanistan to deal with at the moment and an 'uncooperative' Iran would surely further weaken Karzai's regime.

A prelude to Iran-U.S. post

2009-06-25T22:49:00.004-04:00

A post on events in Iran and their relationship to U.S. foreign policy and the regional geopolitical order is on the way. In the mean time, here's an interesting piece to get you thinking - courtesy of Paul J. Saunders posted in the Washington Post.

The lunch was missed, so was breakfast

2009-06-21T16:35:00.006-04:00

A conversation about economic theory was instigated by the most random discussion topic today: the Just-15-more-minutes-of-sleep Syndrome that most of us suffer from.

Basically, my brother and I were lamenting the fact that if we could only wake up 15 minutes earlier every day, we would not have to rush through eating our breakfast (if we even have time for that), and we would be able to make ourselves a nice lunch to bring with us to work - thus cutting back on our daily expenses and being able to save for that long-anticipated vacation at the end of the summer.

Which got us talking about the most basic assumption of mainstream economic theory: that human beings are 'rational actors' who are also 'utility maximizers' (looking to increase their happiness, however they measure happiness.)

But waking up an extra 15 minutes early could be for the rational utility maximizing human being the farthest thing from 'happiness' at that particular moment (think back to the comfort of your bed on a cold winter morning and how 'happy' you are to be there.) Hence, the decision to 'maximize utility' by sleeping 15 minutes.

Which brings us to another concept and econojunky term, "opportunity cost". This is essentially a fancy way of saying 'what you give up to get something else.' Now the opportunity cost of 15 minutes extra sleep would likely be: a good breakfast; the cost of paying for your lunch at work as opposed to bringing one with you from home; and the regret that builds up every passing day knowing that all you have to do to remedy the situation is have some will power and wake up earlier.

So later in the day, you'll likely think back and realize that your decision not to wake up 15 minutes earlier was pretty irrational. In hindsight, the value of the 15 minutes of extra sleep decreases exponentially. Because you think in actual 'utility maximizing' fashion, and not in the 'pseudo-rationality' (my brother's term) that characterizes your lazy and hazy morning thought processes.

So when your thought process changes so drastically from morning to noon, you realize how dodgy the entire assumption of homoeconomicus as a rational utility-maximizing actor really is.

So where am I going with this?

Well, considering the magnitude of the banking collapse that we witnessed in the U.S., and in light of the incredibly shocking admission by ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that “those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief”, it is clear that the assumption is beyond flawed, it is actually dangerous.

Human beings may think in utility maximizing terms sometimes. But usually this is done in hindsight. That is fine, and I have no problem with that. But to have built the edifice of modern financial systems on this most flawed assumption that people will 'always' act in a utility-maximizing way and to continue to promote it and teach it as such is not only intellectually lazy, but self-destructive as we saw all too clearly.

The modern financial capitalist system was suffering like the millions of us from the Just-15-more-minutes-of-sleep Syndrome - except for them it was more like decades of pushing the snooze button so as not to wake up and face the reality of having slept-in.

Now the system was forcefully woken up, the breakfast was missed which weakened the system from day to day, the lunch wasn't made which has cost billions to the taxpayers, and the days of regret and self-flagellation will be numerous.

Snacks for Thought: June 20, 2009

2009-06-20T10:28:00.005-04:00

'Snacks for thought' is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking articles, commentaries and opinions:

Social media vs. the state: repercussions from the Iranian situation - http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/06/20/the_repercussions_of_a_twitter_revolution/
Chinese government bailouts helping high-rollers bet their way out of recession? - http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6538574.ece
Shanghai Cooperation Organization congratulates Iran's president on victory. For those who ever doubted this was a big geopolitical tug-of-war, read this article and ponder - http://www.sptimesrussia.com/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=29285
Israel's Foreign Minister says "settlements are not an obstacle for peace." No, he's right, making such statements is the real obstacle to peace - http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184877876&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Culinary integration and its 'nation-building' powers - http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,631213,00.html
Turkey's multidimensional foreign policy may be a strategic opportunity to expand the EU's influence in the Middle East - http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3351.cfm
Theories of the Chinese Revolution - http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2009/06/theories-of-chinese-revolution.html
This photo captures Latvia's fiscal and economic problems quite well I think - http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/19/friday_photo_riga_rumble

The energy powerhouse of the future? Bolivia?

2009-06-17T19:48:00.003-04:00

Of all the countries of the world, should someone ask me who I thought would be an energy power in the future, I would try and sound smart by answering something outside-the-box like "some impoverished central African country with lots of untapped oil reserves?"

But the real answer lies in South America, Bolivia to be precise. It reportedly has half the world's known supply of Lithium, which is used in electric car batteries. Yea you heard that right, half the world's supply!

Bolivia may start to become a rather important country in world affairs sooner than one would expect.

Amidst the wreckage, a giant stands tall: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

2009-06-16T11:46:00.012-04:00

Forget the fact the the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is named after a Chinese city. China's real stamp-of-power in this multilateral grouping, which includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, is economic.

Up until the beginning of the crisis, which came on the heels of the precipitous drop of global oil prices, Moscow and Beijing were managing the organization as equals - more or less. But the global financial crisis, which has hurt rich and developing countries alike, will have important ramification on the SCO's internal power configuration. This will not come from any explicit Chinese efforts to assert dominance, but instead from differences in economic power and structure. Simply put, China can channel its massive accumulated wealth inwards to stimulate its domestic consumer because its economy is based on manufactured goods. Russia does not have that option, as 40% of its GDP comes from commodities such as oil, gas and minerals. Chinese consumers can buy more Hello Kitty and electronic devices, Russian households cannot simply consume more gas, iron and aluminum.

Here's how Russia's former Prime Minister and well-known scholar Yevgeniy Primakov puts it:

"Russia will not come out of the crisis anytime soon. Russia will most likely come out of the recession in the second echelon - after the developed countries. The trap of the present crisis is that it is not localized but is worldwide. Russia is dependent on other countries. That lessens the opportunity to get out of the recession in a short period of time." "In China too, as in Russia, exports make up a significant part of the GDP. The crisis smacked them and us. The difference is that China exports ready-made products, while on our country [Russia] a strong raw material flow was traditional. What are the Chinese doing? They are moving a large part of the ready-made goods to the domestic market. At the same time, they are trying to raise the population's solvent demand. On this basis, the plants and factories will continue to operate and the economy will work. We [Russia] cannot do that. If raw materials are moved to the domestic market, consumers of such vast volumes will not be found. Raise the population's solvent demand? That merely steps up imports."

China is stepping up its role as the primary 'donor country' in the organization. It has recently extended a $10 billion loan to the SCO, following its $25 billion loan to Russia and $15 billion loan to Kazakhstan the past two months. On the surface, these Chinese gestures are undertaken in a spirit of 'cooperation and mutually shared interests'; Germany's intelligence services calls it a 'geopolitical metamorphosis'.

Regardless of China's ultimate goals, the old adage still holds true, "the hand that lendeth can also easily taketh away."

Genuises I tell you! Genuises!

2009-06-15T14:24:00.006-04:00

The CIA is a world renowned and widely respected organization. But when you read this...

people at the CIA said the problem was always the disposal plan. They wanted to get the intelligence but they never considered what to do with these people afterwards. You’ve violated all their rights so it’s really hard to put them on trial. At one point, they even talked about putting them all on boats that would perpetually circumnavigate the globe.

...you think, "boats that would roam around the oceans forever?" Like really?

Krauthammer's acceptance speech

2009-06-14T19:58:00.009-04:00

Those of you who have heard of Charles Krauthammer - the man who wrote 'The Unipolar Moment' and coined the term unipolarity in international relations parlance - will be interested in reading his acceptance speech upon receiving the 2009 Eric Breindel Award for Excellence in Opinion Journalism.

Now there is no doubt that he is an intelligence man with an astute political agenda. But his attack on the "ideological and intellectual monopoly" of the left in the mainstream media obscures the real point: he is a neoconservative ideologue who failed miserably along with the rest of his ideological buddies to grow any sustainable roots in the American and international political scenes during the eight disastrous years of W's administration.

That neoconservative ideology and policies - be it foreign or domestic - failed, is no fault of the 'Communist media', but a direct result of the men and women who led the United States government into quagmires abroad, and profligacy at home.

Of course, he has since conveniently distanced himself from the core neocon elites on issues such as the Iraq War. But this will not change the fact that the men and women who thought-about, formulated and implemented the policies under Bush were mostly implementing the ideological vision of the 'right', of which Mr. Krauthammer is a staunch supporter. Look where that brought the world...

Internet censorship and the good life

2009-06-12T19:08:00.008-04:00

Having just completed a 5 months academic stint in Turkey followed by a 3 week stay in Syria, I am itching to give my two cents regarding internet censorship by authorities. Both countries practice it widely.

I am completely and unequivocally against it. No matter what the side benefits may be (such as protecting children from pornographic content), the principle of censoring open-source information, and the slippery-slope risks that usually arise when authorities - especially unelected and undemocratic ones - begin to determine what is and what is not appropriate for civil society to see, have no place in our 21st century 'global village.'

Turks had YouTube blocked, while Syrians did not allow Blogger, Facebook and a host of other online content to be viewed by their populations.

Besides the fact that in both countries tech-savvy young generations laughably bypassed the filtering efforts by simply using different IP addresses or software such as UltraSurf, the thought of having some narrow-minded technocrat, judge or security official decide what is appropriate for me to read and think is anathema to my idea of progressiveness, freedom and the good life.

Which brings me to China. Many people will almost reflexively bring up the Rising Dragon as living proof of the absurdity of my claim that censorship needs not impede development. This assumption misses the point that tall buildings, nice shopping malls and a richer population do not equal an emancipated people who are free to think, inovate and hold their governments accountable as they see fit. Besides, when was the last time China invented a revolutionary invention? Gun powder and the printing press. But how many thousands of years ago?

(photo from Newsline)

Snacks for Thought: June 12, 2009

2009-06-12T12:08:00.004-04:00

When political actors play market: Ian Bremmer looks at the policy coordination failures during the global crisis (this guy wrote an interesting book called 'J-Curve' in which he examined the relationship between a country's openess to global ideas and economics on one hand, and authoritarian politics on the other.)
What do Zucchinis and sub-prime collateralized debt instruments have in common? found out here.
Both Washington and Damascus praise the results of the Lebanese elections: a rare occurrence that may be a signal of concrete rapprochement between the two sides.
More consumer spending, increasingly available credit and strong industrial production are testaments to Brazil's sound fiscal and monetary policies during the past seven years. Read about it here.
Wine without the headache? Is alcohol without the hangover on the horizon? Either way, this is reason enough for me to now be an official supporter of genetically modified food.

Middle East press reactions to Obama's Cairo speech

2009-06-06T09:59:00.004-04:00

The following is a round-up of the Middle East's press reactions to Obama's long-awaited speech in Cairo addressing the Islamic world. The President clearly hit the right buttons.

Daily Star (Lebanon):

To measure the impact of such an innovative address, one even needs innovative tools, as well as time to digest it before completing the full evaluation. But we should remember the Cairo speech wasn't a show - it was an exercise in power politics of the first order. The credit here probably belongs to Rahm Emmanuel, Obama's chief of staff. Without Emmanuel, whose pro-Israeli sympathies can't be questioned, Obama wouldn't be taking on the pro-Israel lobby, whether on Palestine or Iran. Emmanuel has laid down a bruising challenge: come up with a better plan on these issues, or shut up.

Jordan Times (Jordan):

Those were indeed soothing words coming eloquently from the mouth of US President Barack Obama in Cairo on Thursday. And of course they were comforting because they come after eight years of George W. Bush who launched his crusade on “terror” - which many interpreted as a war on Islam - in the process invading two Muslim nations.

Saudi Gazette (Saudi Arabia):

Obama is not going to fix everything and probably not even most things in the Middle East. But he set the tone that rhetoric and slavish loyalty to one country at the expense of the rest of the region is not the answer to peace. His speech put Israel and Arab leaders on notice that it is no longer business as usual.

The National (UAE):

The US president may fail to achieve his designs for regional peace and security; it is a long way from a podium in Cairo to Palestinian statehood. And if rhetoric and a well-delivered speech could solve the complex problems plaguing the region, he would have done it already. Unfortunately it will be policy shifts, many of them painful, which will bring about an end to regional conflict. But he has made the first step; it remains to be seen how the Muslim world will answer.

Hurriyet (Turkey):

So long as Obama is the speaker and the text is good and he is a good orator, the speech had no chance but to be a good one. Was it historic? We will see in the future. But without a doubt, so long as Obama was delivering a speech concentrated on "U.S.-Islam", it was a significant address.

Haaretz (Israel):

For Israel, Obama's "Cairo speech" marks nothing less than a strategic revolution. During the Bush era, Israel was America's friendliest partner in the war on terror, and enjoyed military freedom of operation against the Palestinians, Hezbollah and Syria, for which it in return withdrew from the Gaza settlements. With Obama, Israel has to undergo a re-education, and will have to once again pass a test of its dedication to U.S. interests in the Middle East.

Asharq Alawsat (International):

The speech by Obama should have been given to us long ago by an Arab or Islamic leader, not an American one, as we are the victims of poverty, extremism, division and violence, in all its forms and under various pretexts. The Arab and Islamic public should have heard what they heard from Obama in all its clarity and openness a long time ago, with regards to the peace [process], the fight against extremism, the right to education and dignity, women's rights, the issue of minorities, democracy, and other issues.

Arab Times (Kuwait):

We should welcome the man who delivered a historic speech at our homes. Our greetings to you Aba Hussein! As expected, he approached us with a well-phrased speech. He clearly expressed his ideas and stands on various regional and international issues. We thought his visit was aimed at fulfilling the promises he made before his election to the White House. We are now aware that there’s more to the man than meets the eye. With full transparency, he discussed his policy on establishing new and strong relations between his country and others. We thought he would never utter some Arabic words to negate allegations on his lineage, particularly his African origins and Muslim father. Surprisingly, he was proud of his origins and he uttered some Arabic words clearly!

The political undertones of Israel's military exercises

2009-06-01T06:09:00.007-04:00

Israel is currently undergoing the largest and most comprehensive military exercises in its history. Five days of ground, air and navy simulation drills are tactically meant to prepare the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) for a total war scenario with Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinians and Iran. But there is a more calculated political aim to these drills.

The timing is meant to send a clear message to the Lebanese electorate about the dangers of electing the Hezballah-led coalition into a majority governing role for the first time in the militant movement's history.

On the heels of an article from germany's Spiegel magazine claiming to have inside sources implicating Hezballah officials in the death of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq el-Hariri, Israel is looking to further influence the political calculus of Lebanon's electorate and politicians alike ahead of the June 7 elections.

Defence Minister Ehud Barak has already warned, echoing statements by other top-ranking Israeli officials, that a Hezballah-led government would automatically make the Lebanese state an enemy entity. This means Israel would consider itself free to target any government and economic infrastructure it deems necessary in a future war with its tiny southern neighbour. The war games are meant to reinforce this heavy-handed policy.

(photo from PressTV)

In Damascus

2009-05-26T08:03:00.002-04:00

Hey all!

I have finished my academic exchange semester in Turkey, and I am currently travelling around Syria. Blogging will naturally be much slower and could stop for the next few weeks.

I'll have much to write about as soon as I am back in Canada, that's for sure.

Iyad

Snacks for Thought: May 20, 2009

2009-05-20T21:56:00.000-04:00

Snacks for thought is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking stories, commentaries and interviews from around the world.

When visiting Caesar; how diplomatic visits to the White House work - http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1086070.html
Great lecture by a world class mind on political violence. You will end this lecture with much to think about, I promise - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vgl9S3hpbc&feature=player_embed
Regional and country-specific assessments of the global crisis by Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor - http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/256736/green_shoots_or_yellow_weeds
Not as big, not as small as we thought? Martin Wolf assesses how influential to world history the global economic crisis will be - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/beb9b7e8-449f-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html

Kosovo: what after independence?

2009-05-18T16:21:00.012-04:00

(this article has been translated from its original french version and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Editor or anyone else associated with this blog. The original article can be emailed on request)

The Parliament of Kosovo declared its independence over one year ago, in February 2008. Supported by the United States, France, Germany, and Turkey, among others, the tiny Kosovar state seeks to emancipate itself from the yoke of its obstructive Serbian neighbour, and establish itself as an independent and viable state. Serbia on the hand, considers Kosovo to be an integral part of its historic territory.

Yet Kosovo’s current situation as an enclave does not make things easy, especially for the transit of goods and energy through its territory. I vividly remember the horrendously long lines of trucks trying to cross over from Macedonia. On the security front, the presence of foreign European troops on its territory (French, German, Italian, Swiss…) provides it with a temporary security umbrella meant to deter Serbia from trying to recapture its ‘lost province’ by force.

But for the time being, and for the foreseeable future, Kosovo will remain a ‘protectorate’ of the European Union. Lets look at the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina, almost 14 years after the signing of the Dayton Accords : the country remains administered by the United Nations and without a clear future. The worst-case scenario would be for Kosovo to become another Bosnia – a puppet state who’s structures only stand thanks to UN support.

So what does the future hold for Kosovo ? Is it possible to reconcile Kosovars and Serbs ? Certain voices argue that granting entry to ex-Yugoslavia into the EU would serve to diminish tensions in the Balkans. Nothing could be less sure. While an integrated EU-led approach targeting enhanced socio-economic cooperation could certainly bring about rapprochement between the states, expecting Serbia’s grievances towards Kosovo to diminish is a giant leap of logic.

A war, even if unthinkable at the moment, cannot be ruled out in the long-run. Serbia certainly has ambitions to join the EU, but it has also made it irrevocably clear that Kosovo’s independence is impossible for it to accept. However, Serbia’s only source of support at the moment, Russia, is insufficient to push Serbia into a military confrontation: images of NATO bombardments in Belgrade vividly remain in the minds of Serbs. Kosovars on the other hand, are baskiing in their newly-gained independence and would want nothing less than to rejoin Serbia, where they felt oppressed and discriminated against by the Serbian government.

So what then ? A union with Albania perhaps ? For Albania, this would be a golden opportunity to create a ‘Greater Albania’ and reunite Albanian speakers in the region. However, as one of my Kosovar friends put it to me, Kosovars fear such a union would simply replace Serbian tutelage with an Albanian one. Instead, Kosovo banks on rapid economic development and a privileged partnership with the EU to solidify its independence.

Having said this, turning our backs on Serbia by failing to reach a regional politico-economic solution to the problem would be a grave mistake in the long-run - the wounds of the past would remain dangerously open…

Mathieu Lepaon is an international relations student and reservist in the French Army.

Hats off to India!

2009-05-16T06:43:00.010-04:00

With the Congress-led alliance now sure to win a majority in the Indian elections, India is close to wrapping up the largest display of democratic participation the world has ever seen. Approximately 400 million Indians are estimated to have cast their ballots in this crucial election for the country and the region.

In voting for the Congress-led coalition, the Indian electorate sent a firm signal that it does not wish to follow in America's footsteps following its own terrorist outrage in Mumbai. On the heels of the attacks of November 2008 that killed 185 Indian and foreign citizens, the B.J.P-led opposition appealed to national security in its campaign efforts. Yet it did not pay political dividends. Voters understood full-well the political implications of voting for the Hindu nationalists who, in a time when neighbouring Pakistan is in flames, would have played into the extremists' hands and further destabilized the region.

To the extent that personalities matter, it is reassuring that the prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh will likely remain in his post. His reputation as a wise and intelligent politician did not develop from thin air. His leadership and judiciousness following the terrorist attacks was a testament to his reputation.

Under tremendous pressure to act, the Prime Minister listened to all voices, including the hawkish ones. Yet in the end, he decided to rule out the military option, which would have further destabilized Pakistan and potentially triggered a massive conflict between the two nuclear armed rivals. In an act of diplomatic pressure, he opted to deliver to Pakistan an intelligence dossier with evidence proving the nationality of the assailants (who were all Pakistani), and assertively called on Islamabad to hand over all involved Pakistani citizens to face Indian justice.

Opponents at the time denounced his decision to refrain from attacking Pakistan as proof of his indecisiveness. Yet his decision was a textbook example of how not to give terrorists the attention and political credibility they seek.

The world has much to learn from the Indian governments' response in the face of terrorism and from the Indian electorate's fine display of political consciousness. Hats off to India.

(photo from Getty Images)

Global Think Tank Directory

2009-05-15T12:42:00.004-04:00

Here's a useful initiative - a directory of think tanks dealing with international affairs issues from almost every country in the world. Great for research purposes.

French Military Bases in Africa

2009-05-14T16:29:00.016-04:00

French troops patrolling N'Djamena Airport, February 2008

(This article was translated from its original French version and does not necessarily reflect the points of view of the Editor or anyone else associated with this blog. The original article can be emailed on request)

France still has ‘boots on the ground’ in several ex-colonial African states who were once part of its large empire. By establishing mutual cooperation and technical assistance agreements with these newly-independent states in the 1960’s, France has maintained a military presence in Chad, the Central African Republic and Djibouti, among others.

What are France’s interests, both strategic and political in these states? A careful analysis reveals these to be far from negligible, allowing France to exercise considerable influence over the internal affairs of these countries.

Lets take for example the events that unfolded in Chad during February 2008 when the government, under the leadership of President Idriss Deby since 1990, was attacked by a Rebel convoy traveling from Sudan. As the rebels headed straight for the Presidential Palace in Ndjamena (the capital), the situation turned critical for the government and its loyalist forces. The French government began an emergency evacuation of Europeans, especially French citizens. But the French role was far from limited to humanitarian evacuation efforts.

Under the aegis of acting to secure the evacuation of its citizens, French troops immediately took control of the main airport, making sure the government had access to its most effective means of riposte, the air force. As a result, and without ‘official’ French participation, the air force successfully squelched the rebellion and saved the government of President Deby from an imminent death.

In an impressive show of political and military craftsmanship, France was able to both protect the airport for evacuation measures, and safeguard its short-term economic and strategic interests. Strategically, France held its position in the region, which allows it to intervene rapidly in future crisis situations. Economically, the French military protects French firms (Total for example) that operate in the less than favourable security environments of the region – threatening these firms is to threaten the French military itself.

However, in the long-term it was France’s prestige that was on the line: few countries, besides the United States, can boast overseas bases of the kind France has in Africa. From this point of view, we cannot overlook the importance of the desert environment these bases provide for the training of the elite Marine Infantry Regiments. These bases maintain the military readiness of these troops for harsh climate operations.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to note how little the French government communicates regarding its presence in such areas, and how little it is questioned. The transparency that is demanded for operations in Afghanistan, or the reasons for the presence of French troops in Africa, are seldom given. It's as if that presence was self-explanatory.

Mathieu Lepaon is an International Relations student and reserve soldier of the French Army

(Photo from ABC News)

Obama and the power of ideas: Part 2

2009-05-14T05:20:00.013-04:00

In part one of 'Obama and the Power of Ideas' we laid down our philosophical opinions about what ideas are, and how they may be used for good or evil in the world. As promised, we will now explore how President Obama can put to use the immense political capital he enjoys in America, and the world, to steer the ship of American foreign policy back into calmer waters.

Obama will be speaking next month in Egypt, a country that many Arabs still see as the heart of contemporary Arabic culture and identity. The speech's importance will depend on its content. Foreign public speeches, especially when they are delivered by the President of the United States, are important. They can affect public and elite opinions around the world in serious ways, and what region is more in need of soft-diplomacy than the Middle East today? The Cairo speech will be a chance for Obama to build on the idea upon which he was elected: change.

The speech must therefore inspire the millions of relatively deprived citizens of the region. It must remind the people that while their leaders may not necessarily hear their calls for political freedom, America does. But it will not force it on them or bring about such changes by throwing their societies into further disarray.

The speech must also heavily touch on the number-one problem of the Middle East - the Arab-Israeli conflict. Obama and his speech writers cannot possibly underestimate the importance of this conflict to the region's citizens. He must be steadfast in his support for peace and provide not simply empty rhetoric, but a clear message that peace between Israel and the Arabs will be at the top of his foreign policy agenda. If the message wavers in this regard he will almost instantly turn-off millions of listeners.

With regards to other regions of the world, Obama must continue to send the message that America is listening, not simply pretending too, and contemplating ways to accommodate the multiplicity of voices and interests. This is not an 'apologetic or appeasement' strategy like Obama's critiques claim. It is the smart thing to do in order to tame the surge in anti-Americanism that followed Bush's disastrous eight years in power.

Without softening the almost reflexive resistance to American power and ideals that has spread around the world, Washington will have a much harder time pursuing its interests without relying on 'hard-power'. Soft-power, of which public diplomacy is a crucial pillar, will have to be a cornerstone of his foreign policy strategy, not a by-product.

In this regard, Obama's decision to seek readmission into the United Nations Human Rights Council, after Bush withdrew from it, is a welcome development. After all, we have already seen what over-reliance on military strength and economic sanctions have achieved, do we really want more of the same?

Snacks for Thought, AfPak version: May 9, 2009

2009-05-09T11:03:00.007-04:00

Obama campaigned on the message that Bush "took his eyes off the ball" by going to Iraq when the real threat always came from within Afghanistan. True to his word, upon taking power Obama is revamping U.S. policy towards the Afghan conflict and reevaluating the so-called AfPak strategy.

On this note, this week's Snacks for Thought zeroes in on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Charlie Rose in an exclusive interview with the Afghan and Pakistani presidents - http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10288
Naomi Wolf on Afghanistan's beourgening feminist movement - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nwolf11
Take it or leave it! Gideon Rachman on America's loveless relationship with the AfPak Presidents - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d9135ad8-398f-11de-b82d-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
From Taliban to military Junta: Is that really the answer? - http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=5453995967470657587

Obama and the power of ideas: part 1

2009-05-06T14:02:00.012-04:00

I once stumbled on a famous quote by the French writer Victor Hugo: 'there is one thing more powerful than all the armies of the world combined, that is an idea who's time has come.'

Since that day, I have been fascinated with the power of ideas. I remember how in first year of university I flirted with the 'idea' of writing a philosophical essay about ideas and their relationship to history, change, enlightenment and morality. Of course, my endeavor went nowhere, mostly due to my very limited understanding of the material and concepts I was flirting with at the time.

Five years later, I believe I am better equipped to commit to writing my inclinations, hunches and intuitions regarding the relationship of ideas to historical change, both in its positive and negative manifestation.

I believe that an idea is qualitatively different from an opinion, argument, statement, thought or belief. In the social world, which includes civil-political and socio-economic struggle, an idea is the spark that puts in motion the inevitable forward march of history - a march that can result in both good and evil, constructive or destructive, emancipating or oppressive change. A historic 'idea' is that seminal moment when the collectivity of thoughts, experiences, intuitions and desires present in the minds of human beings are neatly bundled up and put together in a sophisticated and persuasive manner by the idea's founder.

Of course, the idea will not flourish until it reaches 'critical mass' among its adherent which causes it to snowball and grow. This is perhaps why ideas are useful for historians in their quest to uncover when and how history moves from one point to another - from primitive to feudal to capitalist for example.

Ideas can also come suddenly crashing down when those who purport to represent them stop truly believing in them or cease to understand what they are actually defending. The story of America under George W. Bush represents this phenomenon.

When America - a country founded on the ideas of freedom and liberty - begins to behave like the authoritarian and 'idea fearing' regimes that it so vehemently opposes, it will naturally be more harshly judged by the world.

President Obama has essentially promised his countrymen, and the world at large, to rekindle the flame of freedom and liberty, both at home and abroad - this is an idea that America pioneered, and a big reason for its ability to lead in the world over the past 60 years. If pursued with vigour, Obama can still save this flame from extinguishing in the minds of many in the world.

How this can be done will be discussed in part 2 of this post.

The big debate: does the U.S. need an auto industry?

2009-05-01T08:10:00.005-04:00

What should Americans do with regards to their ailing big-3 car manufacturers: bail them out no matter what; completely revamp their management and business models; succumb to the superiority of foreign competition at home and focus on foreign markets; urgently implement a national health care plan to lower labour costs?

You can follow and contribute to this debate here.

(photo from Karry Waghorn caricatures)

What is Swine Influenza?

2009-04-27T07:54:00.002-04:00

Those of you interested in knowing more about Swine flu can find more information here.

In Lebanese politics, the more things change, the more they stay the same

2009-04-26T17:04:00.016-04:00

Today, Lebanese politics are formally divided into two camps. One side represents the March 14 coalition of pro-Western and anti-Syrian politicians; the other the March 8 grouping of anti-American and broadly pro-Eastern politicians - neutrality is only an option if one is willing to renege political influence.

The disagreements between the feuding camps were echoed by March 14 coalition leader Samir Geagea proclaiming that the upcoming parliamentary elections would determine "which Lebanon we want." While a Hezballah politician attacked those seeking to convince the population that Syria and not Israel represented the biggest threat to Lebanon's future and sovereignty.

The U.S. for its part has thrown its lot behind the 'moderates' - a euphemism for the March 14 camp - against the 'extremists (meant to represent Hezballah and their supporters.) The Secretary of State pledged that "the United States will never make any deal with Syria that sells out Lebanon and the Lebanese people."

Egypt has admonished Hezballah for allegedly attempting to carry out terrorist activities in its territory.

Syria has banned Lebanese newspaper Al-Diyar for criticizing Michel Aoun (Damascus's ex-foe-turned-ally)

Iran for its part accused Israel - and indirectly the U.S. - of orchestrating a smear campaign against Hezbollah leaders designed to subvert the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon.

All this begs the question; will Lebanon ever be anything more than an arena for regional and international geopolitical competition by more powerful states? At this point it certainly looks like the more things change, the more they stay the same.

(photo from yalibnan.com)

Snacks for thought - April 25, 2009

2009-04-25T14:17:00.003-04:00

Is now the right time for peace between Israel and the Arabs? Kishore Mahbubani thinks so - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mahbubani4
So apparently enduring all that nagging by my parents was for nothing!! - http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/04/do_parents_affe.html
A debate on the strategic role of the sole superpower army at the beginning of the 21st century - http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/debate.cfm?q=1
What does an emboldened IMF mean for international finance? - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8015979.stm

U.S. Consul at Yeditepe University

2009-04-23T16:21:00.012-04:00

Two days ago, I attended a talk at Yeditepe University by U.S. Consul in Istanbul Ms. Sharon Weiner. Ms. Weiner spoke about the U.S.'s Middle East policy in general and U.S.-Turkish relations in brief. Although I thought her speech was a tad bland and basic, the general points are worth reiterating here.

Ms. Weiner started by explaining that a change in 'tone, approach and priorities' would differentiate President Obama's foreign policy from that of George W. Bush's.

She said a shift in tone was clear in Obama's messages to the world calling for dialogue and mutual exchanges between nations as opposed to demands and ultimatums. Changes in approach were noticeable by purview of: Obama's first foreign interview going to Iraq based (but American supported and funded) Al-Arabiya station; his outspoken support for U.S. telecom companies bidding in Cuba; and his recent public handshakes with the anti-Bush Nicaraguan and Venezuelan Presidents Daniel Ortega and Hugo Chavez at the Americas Summit. Ms. Weiner also explained that the U.S. foreign policy agenda was being revamped by incorporating new priorities, such as the environment and Somalian piracy, and re-ordering familiar ones, such as Iraq and Af-Pak.

She also reminded us of the massive expectations on the shoulders of President Obama and cautioned us to be patient in our demand for 'change' - basically saying 'yes we can but you'll have to wait a bit.'

Ms. Weiner finished by talking about the prospects for Turkish-U.S. relations in the first half of the 21st century. She invoked the shared interests of both countries with respect to Iraq, Iran, Israel, Terrorim and nuclear proliferation and explained that due to the Middle East's central role for U.S. and Turkish interests, Ankara and Washington can expect heightened strategic consultation and collaboration on the region's most pressing issues.

(photo from official website of the U.S. Consulate General in Istanbul )

Snacks for thought - April 20, 2009

2009-04-20T14:32:00.002-04:00

'Snacks for thought' is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking articles, commentaries and opinions:

Are Somalia's pirates the Robin Hoods of Africa? - http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-you-are-being-lied-to-about-pirates-1225817.html
Obamaphiles and 'the audacity of hope-no-more' - http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090504/klein?rel=hp_currently
Connecting Taiwan's current political crisis to the global economy - http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7681
Globalization's showdown with itself. Read this thoughtful piece by Joseph S. Nye's - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nye69
Saudi Arabia repeals all laws discriminating to women...in this popular virtual video game at least - http://www.alarabiya.net//articles/2009/04/20/71059.html

Who is the real AKP?

2009-04-18T18:48:00.007-04:00

I had an enthralling conversation with some Turkish friends last night. The theme of the conversation was a favourite among Istanbulites - domestic politics.

Standing on the high-rise terrace of a posh nightclub overlooking a glittering Bosphorus, we spoke late into the night. A drink here, a drink there and before we knew it we were determined to answer the burning questions afflicting modern Turkish politics. Hearing us, you might have mistaken us for bourgeois intellectuals debating the ills and perils of 19th century Europe.

Yet our historical focus was not on the past, but on the present and the future. Specifically, on the ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP) and its legitimacy (or lack thereof in the opinion of my friends.) We bounced ideas and arguments back and forth regarding the AKP's Islamic leanings, its ability to govern and the supposed 'American role' behind its rise to power nearly 8 years ago.

As interesting and rewarding as the conversation was for me - as any conversation of the sort should be - I was left with more questions than answers; chief among them, who is the real AKP and what kind of a Turkey does it ultimately strive for?

Is the AKP good for the country at the onset of the 21st century? Or, does it risk undermining what many see as Turkey's 'rise' in the era of modern globalization? Is its self-professed 'soft Islam' to be welcomed as a democratic and peaceful reflection of the country's organic identity and geographic position in the world (an identity that AKP supporters claim has been artificially suppressed by the guardians of Kemalist secularism for over 50 years)? Or, is the AKP seeking authoritarian control of the palace by pulling a Hitler and using legal electoral mechanisms to conduct a 'takeover from within' and implement its own idea of an Islamic state a la Khoumeini?

Personally, I choose to keep my own opinions off the record at this point.

Heavy flyers - no pun intended

2009-04-16T15:02:00.009-04:00

United Airlines has started double-charging 'oversized' flyers in Chicago. They aren't the first. Dallas-based Southwest airlines adopted the practice in 2004. It seems that the heavier weight of American passengers is hurting airlines' bottom-line due to higher fuel consumption. A study conducted in 2000 by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention quantified these losses by concluding that heavier waistlines forced the industry to spend $275 million to burn 350 million more gallons of fuel. This caused an extra 3.8 million tons of carbon dioxide to be released into the air (look out for the environmentalists!)

Now I understand that being obese may force you to take up two seats in an airplane and I see the airlines point of view on the issue - heavier waistlines cost them money. I'm not so big on the environmental concerns because there are much more ethically simple means to reduce carbon emissions than to start targeting overweight people. However, I can't help but wonder about the economic ramifications of the double-charging policy if it was to become standard practice within the American aviation industry.

Let's think about it for a second. Assume this becomes an established business practice and a consensus is reached within the airline about what constitutes an 'oversized customer'.

Now take into consideration the following data:

Increase in Prevalence (%) of Overweight (BMI > 25), Obesity (BMI > 30) and Severe Obesity (BMI > 40) Among U.S. Adults.
	Overweight (BMI > 25)	Obesity (BMI > 30)	Severe Obesity (BMI > 40)
1999 to 2000	64.5	30.5	4.7
1988 to 1994	56.0	23.0	2.9
1976 to 1980	46.0	14.4	No Data
Source: CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Health, United States, 2002. Flegal et. al. JAMA. 2002;288:1723-7. NIH, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Clinical Guidelines on the Identification, Evaluation and Treatment of Overweight and Obesity in Adults, 1998.

and...

Percent of Obese (BMI > 30) in U.S. Adults

As you can see, the majority of American adults are considered overweight or obese. Now, let's only consider the 'Obese' category - 30.5% of American adults as of the year 2000.

So, charging over 30% of the American population an indirect 'obesity tax' could have some interesting economic ramifications. Either these flyers reduce their demand for flying by substituting airplanes for alternative transportation mechanisms such as trains, buses or cars when possible. Or they start to feel the squeeze on their wallets and make lifestyle changes, including less consumption of fast and junk food - which would hurt McDonalds and friends. Or, and that's always a possibility, overweight Americans decide to keep flying and continue satisfying their Big Mac cravings which would end up making everyone happy except the environmentalists.

Just some food for thought...(pun intended)

Snacks for thought - April 12, 2009

2009-04-12T05:52:00.004-04:00

'Snacks for thought' is a weekly round-up of thought-provoking articles, commentaries and opinions:

American Conservative media ridicules Obama's "apology tour" - http://mediamatters.org/items/200904100035
For all my lady friends who love shopping, you should probably not read this story - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/americas-love-affair-with-malls-ends.html
Not that it was ever close to being 'over', but is Iraq slipping again? - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/world/middleeast/01insurgency.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1238559134-n7UQAPbkBcGA6kqFeSm//w
With only 7 companies listed right now, Syria's new securities exchange in Damascus is an interesting real-life lesson of how these things are put together from scratch. Anyone interested should follow its development - http://www.zawya.com/equities/sy/
The rise of the 'East' from a Turkish Truck Driver's perspective - http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=172209

Happy Easter!

2009-04-11T15:17:00.003-04:00

Blogging has been slow lately due to academic commitments. Things should pick up soon.

Happy Easter and enjoy your stuffed turkey, although I wont be having any this year :(

Yes...the sorrows of living on your own in a foreign land for the first time.

The riddle of Pakistan is the key to Afghanistan

2009-04-05T05:52:00.007-04:00

A major problem in formulating an opinion on the Pakistan conflict, which directly should inform one's opinion about the war in Afghanistan, is that quite frankly, not many people really understand who's who, who wants what, who's on who's side and so on...

An overview of the conflict and its major actors is a good start to try and make sense of the seemingly senseless and unconnected violence afflicting the country (if we can still call it that at this point.) Yet on the heels of yet another bloody attack on Pakistani Shi'a civilians, it is unlikely to help us understand what should be done about it.

Obama for one seems to think he has part of the answers. He has understood from the get-go that no substantial progress can be hoped for in Pakistan, let alone Afghanistan, without the reenergized support of the broader international community, and this includes major regional players that the Bush Administration managed to royally piss-off during its eight years of power - see Russia & Iran. Obama also wants to redirect resources from Iraq to Af-Pak and 'de-Americanize' the war by calling on NATO allies to contribute more troops (all part of Obama's multilateral approach to international problems.) NATO has partly responded by pledging an increase of 5000 troops. Washington and NATO are also exploring ways to pry the Taliban open by striking deals with more 'moderate wings' of the groups.

Yet all this politicking, strategizing and saber-rattling on the part of Obama does not clarify how victory is to be achieved without reforming the entire Pakistani state. Corruption, double-crossing, murderous political rivalries, a powerless central government, a lack of coordination among the many competing security and intelligence agencies and the sense of despair spreading among the Pakistani population are not adequately addressed in Obama's strategy.

What do we do about what is on the verge of becoming a failed state? Pakistan's internal strife is the underbelly of the problem and part-and-parcel of any long-term solution for Afghanistan.

The definitive theory of War

2009-04-01T16:50:00.008-04:00

According to this article on ape behaviour it is mentioned that the “wars” witnessed between neighbouring bands of Chimpanzees seem to have been brought on by human encroachment on their habitat.

I would venture further by saying that it doesn't matter whether it's fish, pandas, hippopotamuses, or cute and cuddly koala bears: if you see a bunch of them fighting, assume there is a human being involved somewhere.

How about that for a meta-theory of War?

A few snacks for thought

2009-03-31T05:02:00.005-04:00

The War on Terror in the eyes of ordinary Pakistanis - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7972055.stm
How would a modern depression look like? - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123836938251967565.html
A thrilling article exploring the Israeli-American intelligence (un)cooperation with regards to Iran's nuclear program - http://www.metimes.com/International/2009/03/31/israels_covert_war_on_iran_faces_disapproving_white_house/3407/
Mulling over Dr. Samuel Huntington's theories and what he 'really meant' will not stop simply because he has passed away - http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2009/03/samuel_huntington_misunderstoo.html

AIG and the American taxpayer

2009-03-23T06:00:00.010-04:00

So AIG's top guys wanna get their pay, is that really a crime? Not at all, they are simply acting in their 'rational self interest'. But the taxpayers that bailed out the company are also acting in their self interest and demand for the billions dished out to be used to remedy the situation without rewarding the failures of AIG managers. And as for the 'contractual obligations' excuse to allow the millions of retro-bonuses to be dished out, well this post explains why it simply doesn't stand to careful scrutiny.

Yet I can't help but wonder why Americans are so up-and-arms over this. Shouldn't they be desensitized to getting ripped-off the past 8 years? Billions continue to be spent in Iraq - a counterproductive war abroad - when most of that money should have been spend on healthcare, education and reducing inequality at home.

I'd like to think that the outrage over AIG heralds the rise of the enlightened American taxpayer, who starts to seriously hold Washington accountable for the use of public funds. Yet something tells me the furor will soon subside, complacency will creep back in, and as the economy start to recover, today's awoken taxpayer will slumber back into the comforts of every day life and away from the responsibility to be the avant-guard of responsible government spending.

It's just so simple isn't it?

2009-03-22T08:30:00.007-04:00

To all of you who have trouble understanding how human beings can come to kill en masse other human beings without shame or remorse, a good starting point would be the following poem by American poet Sam Keen:

How to Create an Enemy

Start with an empty canvas
Sketch in broad outline the forms of
men, women, and children.
Dip into the unconsciousness well of your own
disowned darkness
with a wide brush and
strain the strangers with the sinister hue
of the shadow.
Trace onto the face of the enemy the greed,
hatred, carelessness you dare not claim as
your own.
Obscure the sweet individuality of each face.
Erase all hints of the myriad loves, hopes,
fears that play through the kaleidoscope of
every infinite heart.
Twist the smile until it forms the downward
arc of cruelty.
Strip flesh from bone until only the
abstract skeleton of death remains.
Exaggerate each feature until man is
metamorphosized into beast, vermin, insect.
Fill in the background with malignant
figures from ancient nightmares – devils,
demons, myrmidons of evil.
When your icon of the enemy is complete
you will be able to kill without guilt,
slaughter without shame.
The thing you destroy will have become
merely an enemy of God, an impediment
to the sacred dialectic of history.

The Middle East as it is: nothing more, nothing less

2009-03-19T10:45:00.015-04:00

The Obama Administration is in the agenda-setting stage of its Middle East foreign policy. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to the region was a chance for the top diplomat to get her feet wet. She met with Turkish, Arab and Israeli leaders, as well as numerous civic groups and organizations, all in an effort to get a feel for the realities on the ground and in the minds of the region's inhabitants.

This begs the question. What should the U.S.'s approach be with regards to the world's most volatile and complicated region?

To begin with, let's remember that what we characterize as the 'Middle East' is far from being a geographic, economic, political, social, linguistic, ethnic or religious monolith. On the other hand, the region is bound by a shared history, deep linkages, as well as distinct sets of challenges and opportunities. For this reason, any attempts to over-simplify, or over-complicate, perceptions of the region are bound to backfire.

Having said this, the game of geopolitics will not stop simply because President Obama may be willing to see the region in an intellectually more honest manner. Nonetheless, it is possible for the U.S. to position itself more favourably vis-a-vis global competitors such as Russia and China without further contributing to regional instability and by securing its fundamental interests such as access to energy.

This can be achieved by adopting a strategically flexible approach that maximizes the U.S.'s ability to maneuvre - getting bogged down in Iraq was the worst decision in this regard. Both allies and adversaries must also be given room to maneuver. Adopting a hardline approach towards Iran would not be in the U.S.'s interest. By extending his hand and offering Iran a "new beginning", Obama has calculated that dialogue with Tehran offers the best chance to reach a settlement on its nuclear program as well as striking a grand bargain regarding its role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Let's remember that it is very unlikely for any peace deal, or even stability, to be achieved between Israel and the Palestinians without Iran's support and that Iran has the ability to make serious problems in Iraq following the relative stability of the past year.

As for U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, any sign of U.S. flexibility towards Iran will force them to loosen their positions as well. This is good. The U.S. has to find a way to untangle the geopolitical deadlock between Arabs and Iran on one hand, and between Arabs and Israel on the other if it hopes of making progress on the region's most pressing issues. Engagement is the best bet to begin a reversal of years (in some cases decades) of horn-locking by the region's power-players.

Democracy and Economics

It would be fancifull to hope for long-term geopolitical changes that would be favourable to U.S. interests without taking into account the domestic political and economic conditions of Middle Eastern countries.

With regards to democracy promotion, the Bush Administration went after the saddle before the horse. They proselytized about democracy before seriously committing any efforts to economic justice and development in the region. Evidently, the men and women who were crafting policy for George W. Bush forgot history. Remember Germany after World War I? Democracy but no democrats. Angry and humiliated peoples can be dangerous at the ballot box. This is not to argue against democratic promotion - the region sorely lacks it - but to remind people about the imperatives of economic development if radical groups are to be discredited at election time.

It will be difficult to convince the masses about the benefits of democracy if they don't feel economic benefits at the same time. People who argue for one before the other are missing the point, democracy and economic development should not be regarded as mutually exclusive but must support one another from the get go.

Although unlikely in the current economic crisis, the U.S. should seriously consider the strategic imperatives for a Middle Eastern Marshall Plan. For all the money and resources that the U.S. and its allies have spent on military ventures, would spending half that amount on reconstruction, investment, education and job-creation, without of course forgetting democracy building, not bring more value added? Opening new markets for Western companies by raising the standard of living and thus of consumption of millions of Middle Easterners would not only benefit both sides economically, but severely undermine the influence of radicals and extremists.

I realize that my comments at this point are very crude and poor on detail, but I sincerely believe in the need to rethink the fundamentals of the U.S.'s policies towards the Middle East. As the most powerful actor in the international system, Washington can afford to think beyond the narrow-minded geopolitical interests of weaker states and be an entrepreneur for a better, more prosperous and peaceful Middle East.

The right to think independently and critically is a bedrock of Canada's freedom

2009-03-18T06:33:00.006-04:00

The statement below was rejected as an op-ed by the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star, according to a March 16, 2009, statement posted at Independent Jewish Voices (Canada).

Jewish Canadians Concerned about Suppression of Criticism of Israel

We are Jewish Canadians concerned about all expressions of racism, anti-Semitism, and social injustice. We believe that the Holocaust legacy "Never again" means never again for all peoples. It is a tragic turn of history that the State of Israel, with its ideals of democracy and its dream of being a safe haven for Jewish people, causes immeasurable suffering and injustice to the Palestinian people.

We are appalled by recent attempts of prominent Jewish organizations and leading Canadian politicians to silence protest against the State of Israel. We are alarmed by the escalation of fear tactics. Charges that those organizing Israel Apartheid Week or supporting an academic boycott of Israel are anti-Semites promoting hatred bring the anti-Communist terror of the 1950s vividly to mind. We believe this serves to deflect attention from Israel’s flagrant violations of international humanitarian law.

B’nai Brith and the Canadian Jewish Congress have pressured university presidents and administrations to silence debate and discussion specifically regarding Palestine/Israel. In a full-page ad in a national newspaper, B’nai Brith urged donors to withhold funds from universities because "anti-Semitic hate fests" were being allowed on campuses. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff have echoed these arguments. While university administrators have resisted demands to shut down Israel Apartheid week, some Ontario university presidents have bowed to this disinformation campaign by suspending and fining students, confiscating posters, and infringing on free speech.

We do not believe that Israel acts in self-defense. Israel is the largest recipient of US foreign aid, receiving $3 million/day. It has the fourth strongest army in the world. Before the invasion of Gaza on 27 December 2008, Israel’s siege had already created a humanitarian catastrophe there, with severe impoverishment, malnutrition, and destroyed infrastructure. It is crucial that forums for discussion of Israel’s accountability to the international community for what many have called war crimes be allowed to proceed unrestricted by specious claims of anti-Semitism.

We recognize that anti-Semitism is a reality in Canada as elsewhere, and we are fully committed to resisting any act of hatred against Jews. At the same time, we condemn false charges of anti-Semitism against student organizations, unions, and other groups and people exercising their democratic right to freedom of speech and association regarding legitimate criticism of the State of Israel.

Signatories:

Abigail Bakan, Adam Balsam, Sharon Baltman, Julia Barnett, Lainie Basman, Jody Berland, Sam Blatt, Geri Blinik, Anita Block, Elizabeth Block, Sheila Block, Hannah Briemberg, Mark Brill, Stephen Brot, Meyer Brownstone, Eliza Burroughs, Smadar Carmon, Gyda Chud, Charles P. Cohen, Nathalie Cohen, David Copeland, Natalie Zemon Davis, Eliza Deutsch, James Deutsch, Judith Deutsch, Abbe Edelson, Jack Etkin, Elle Flanders, Danielle Frank, Ursula Franklin, Dan Freeman-Maloy, Miriam Garfinkle, Alisa Gayle, Jack Gegenberg, Mark Golden, Brenda Goldstein, Sue Goldstein, Cy Gonick, Marnina Gonick, Rachel Gotthilf, Amy Gottleib, Kevin A. Gould, Daina Green, Lisa Frances Greenspoon, Ricardo Grinspun, Cathy Gulkin, Rachel Gurofsky, Deboran Guterman, Yesse Gutman, Freda Guttman, Judy Haiven, Michael Hanna-Fein, Jean Hanson, Jan Heynen, Maria Heynen, Adam Hofmann, Jake Javanshir, Jeannie Kamins, Marylin Kanee, Howard S. Kaplan, Gilda Katz. Maxine Kaufman-Lacusta, Mira Khazzam, Bonnie Sher Klein, Mark Klein, Martin Klein, Naomi Klein, Joshua Katz-Rosene, Ryan Katz-Rosene, Judy Koch, Anton Kuerti, Jason Kunin, Aaron Lakoff, Michael Lambek, Natalie LaRoche, Richard Borshay Lee, Andy Lehrer, Gabriel Levin, Gabriel Levine, Joel Lexchin, Kim Linekin, Abby Lippman, Lee Lorch, Martin Lukacs, Audrey Macklin, Elise Maltin, Richard Marcuse, Wayne Mark, Gabor Mate, Arthur Milner, Anna Miransky, Dorit Naaman, Joanne Naiman, Neil Naiman, Michael Neumann, David-Marc Newman, David Noble, Clare O’Connor, Robin Ostow, Andre W. Payant, Jenny Peto, Simone Powell, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein, Fabienne Presentey, Yacov Rabkin, Diana Ralph, Naomi Rankin, Judy Rebick, Ester Reiter, Jillian Rogin, Richard Roman, Joseph Rosen, Herman Rosenfeld, Martha Roth, Marty Roth, Ruben Roth, E.Natalie Rothman, B. Sack, Ben Saifer, Miriam Sampaio, Jacob Scheir, Fred Schloessinger, Alan Sears, Shlomit Segal, Edward H. Shaffer, Noa Shaindlinger, Ray Shankman, Eva Sharell, Elliot Shek, Sid Shniad, Max Silverman, Samuel Singer, Elizabeth Solloway, Susan Starkman, Greg Starr, Jonathan Sterne, Jeremy Stolow, Rhonda Sussman, Vera Szoke, Joe Tannenbaum, Howard Tessler, Marion Traub-Werner, Ceyda Turan, Sandra Tychsen, Cheryl Wagner, Jon McPhedran Waitzer, David Wall, Naomi Binder Wall, Kathy Wazana, Karen Weisberg, Barry Weisleder, Paul Weinberg, Judith Weisman, Suzanne Weiss, Abraham Weizfeld, Ernie Yacub, B.H. Yael, Yedida Zalik, Melvin Zimmerman

Hats off to the IPE Journal

2009-03-16T05:50:00.003-04:00

An intelligent and witty commentary on the world's most pressing and hot-ticket issues. The International Political Economy blog is recommended reading to be sure. Check it out.

Sojourn in Sofia

2009-03-16T04:23:00.005-04:00

Well, I'm back in Istanbul following my three day sojourn in Sofia, Bulgaria. So what are my impressions of one of the European Union's newest member states? I must admit that I was not very surprised by what I saw.

The city is quiet. Most of the tourist attractions are located in the city centre within a geographic area of no more than a few kilometers in radius. The people are friendly and quite pleasant to chat with.

The country has obviously made great strides in transitioning from its difficult Communist past to a liberal democracy and free-market economy. I witnessed the contrast firsthand at a demonstration by police and firemen in front of the President's Office - something quite rare in the tightly controlled political system of Communist Bulgaria.

Of course, the changes have not been kind to all. The city's older generation, mostly Russian speaking, are finding it difficult to adjust to the new capitalist era away from the reliance on the state for food and shelter. Many poor seniors can be found selling hand-crafted souvenirs and other menial products on street corners and in the main Bazar just to get by. They seemed dejected and out of touch with the modern world.

For the young it's another story. Most of the younger people that I met were perfectly capable of conversing in English, a sign of the new emphasis of the country's education system away from Russian influence. The girls and boys were trotting around in typical European fashion and most seemed quite hopeful for the future of Bulgaria.

Less positive however, is the dirtiness of the city's streets. Liter can be found almost everywhere - even in front of the massive Presidential Office!!

Also, the crime situation is still very bad. Organized crime groups have obviously benefited from the economic liberalisation process and one policeman I talked too was considering quitting his job because in his own words "combating the criminals is simply no longer worth it unless we receive better weapons, training and a higher salary to compensate for the risk."

I will post more thoughts on my trip if they come to me. Please forgive the quality of this post as I am quite tired from my very bumpy 14 hour train ride!

Blogging will resume in a few days

2009-03-12T10:02:00.003-04:00

I have been unable to post blogs for the past few days and will not be able to until at least Monday.

I will be in Sofia (Bulgaria.) Blogs should resume next week.

Cheers from Istanbul!

Good fortune in economic downturn for some

2009-03-08T08:42:00.009-04:00

In hard economic times it becomes hard to soak in all the negative and depressing news. So as hard as it may be, let's look on the bright side for a change.

Who is experiencing good fortunes during this crisis?

1. Safe manufacturers and sellers (as trust in banks and financial assets wanes, what is more reassuring than stuffing those hard-earned savings into a personal safe at home - just like the old days?)

2. Sports-stars (people need heroes to give them hope and sports-stars become rallying flags for national morale)

3. Wal-Mart (ever the bargain-hunter's destination when wallets are strapped for cash)

4. Financial media (everyone wants to know "what the heck is going on and when will all this be over?")

5. Organ meets (who needs a luxurious steak when you can opt for cheaper and equally delicious tongue or tripe meat?)

Protectionism - Italian style

2009-03-06T14:05:00.005-05:00

This is an interesting way to protect your domestic agricultural industry - simply claim that foreign dishes are 'ruining' your ethnic cuisine. It's protectionism a la Italia.

International justice and the ICC: the case of Darfur

2009-03-06T06:21:00.018-05:00

The International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has unleashed a firestorm of controversy around the world and actively threatens the legitimacy and effectiveness of the ICC moving forward.

According to the Rome Treaty, all 108 governments that have ratified it, creating the court, are obliged to help bring him to justice should he step foot in their territory. If only everything was so rosy. The case against the Sudanese president is fraught with political implications on numerous fronts.

For one, the tensions between countries who have refused to sign and/or ratify the ICC Treaty and the rest of the international community are particularly glaring. Major powers such as China, Russia and the U.S. have not ratified the treaty and as such do not recognize the legitimacy of the ICC. For the Chinese and the Russians, the strategy is simple: condemn the ICC's ruling - the first against an active head of state - as an infringement on state sovereignty (the bedrock of our present international order.)

For the U.S., the equation is more complicated. Washington has made claims in support of bringing President Bashir to justice. As we all know, Khartoum and Washington do not exchange best-wishes on holidays. However, as a non-signatory to the Rome Treaty, the U.S. is forced to tip-toe around the issue without supporting the ICC ruling too directly. This is problematic. When the world's premier power-player adopts such a wobbly position, it ultimately weakens the ICC's legitimacy in the eyes of many. People ask, "why should we recognize such a court when the world's most powerful nation does not?"

This is also opening a diplomatic fault line between the West and the Rest. Scouring the international media, blogs and official pronouncements reveals a steady supply of criticism at the current application of the ICC's legal proceedings. Many wonder how justice can be served when it is only pursued against the leaders of weaker states in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe while the rich and powerful in Western capitals enjoy immunity.

In addition, the most dangerous potential repercussions of the ICC's warrant will be on Sudan itself. Many voices have criticized the move against Bashir due to the implications it will likely have on Sudan's fragile internal political and security situation. Already, upon hearing of the ICC's actions, a major rebel group announced they were pulling out of peace negotiations with Khartoum. Bashir's government for its part has reportedly expelled some 13 international aid organizations, affecting an estimated 4.7 million people living in Darfur. Stealing words from The Economist, "where justice has to be weighed against the urgent need to end violence, peace must sometimes come first."

Last but not least, there are serious reservations about the strength of the ICC Prosecutor's case against Bashir. While most observers don't dispute the heinousness of the crimes committed at the hands of the regime in Khartoum, some seriously question the feasibilty of a legal conviction at the present time. Alex de Waal a prominent human rights lawyer and Sudan expert concludes that:

"...if the Prosecutor were to prosecute President Bashir for genocide
using the arguments contained in the Public Application, then he would most probably fail to obtain a conviction. Bashir would be acquitted... [and that] if the Prosecutor were to prosecute President Bashir for warcrimes and crimes against humanity using the mode of liability, ‘perpetration by means,’ he would also face a high likelihood of failing to obtain a conviction."

The ICC's ruling makes a difficult situation all the more complex in my opinion. It will have political ripple-effects that threaten to, not only disrepute the court itself, but bring more hardships to suffering millions affected by the conflict. This is not in any way a defence or even justification of Khartoum's many crimes against its own people. I remain supportive of bringing any and all war criminals to justice, including Bashir. However, pragmatism must sometimes take precedence, especially when people's lives are at stake.

The matter in my opinion remains firmly political, and attempting to apply international justice in such a way, especially following the blatantly illegal war on Iraq, only strengthens the arguments of those that were already skeptical of the ICC's ability to apply its mandate in a fair and equitable way. The ICC prosecutor should remember that the Court is only as powerful as the strong countries of the world allow it to be. Unless the world's great powers suddenly decide to change the rules of international relations that have been practiced for ions, I see no reason why the ICC, in its current configuration will ever be able to play God-trick and operate as a truly objective institution free from the forces of international politics.

Intellectuals in contemporary Islam

2009-03-01T07:44:00.008-05:00

Allow me to share with you what in my opinion is a very stimulating talk on the position of intellectuals in modern Islamic societies. Mohamed Arkoun, Professor Emeritus of Islamic Studies at the Sorbonne in Paris, explains why free intellectualism has been gradually and systematically suppressed during the past three decades across the Islamic world.

The following are some points that I found particularly interesting:

As Arkoun expresses, "an intellectual must keep a distance from what he studies, even from his religion."
Since the end of the 18th century, Islam has accumulated sets of challenges that have become so complex, so pervasive, making it extremely hard to face, analyze and address them effectively today (which in my opinion does not mean that they cannot be adequately resolved, but it will take much more effort on the part of both Islam and the rest of the world than is currently being made.)
Intellectuals in the Islamic world have faced two pressures in the past 30 years. One from above coming from the state, and one from below coming from the revivalism of popular Islam and its varying fundamentalist interpretations. These twin pressures have forced intellectuals to practice self-censorship and in the process have prevented them from meeting their professional and ethical obligation to society, namely free speech and uninhibited critical thinking about pressing issues.
Although the 'Ulama (Muslim clerics), have more of an audience today than the intellectuals, there remain issues in Islam which only intellectuals have the possibility to access and address through social scientific lenses and methodologies.
There exists an area of religious study and thinking that remains off-limits to questionning and analysis. The level superseeding the consensual points of Islam's religious and traditional cannons, doctrines, texts and narratives cannot be adequately and freely intellectually explored, debated and reconsidered (think of Salman Rushdie's "Satanic Verses")
The language barriers between European and Arabic tongues causes a problem for cross-cultural intellectual debate. Arabic intellectuals today conceptualize their ideas and arguments using the social scientific lexicon of European languages which reflects the historical/cultural experiences of the West and not those of Arabic/Islamic peoples. This creates misunderstanding and even confusion when trying to reach out to the non-Islamic world at the intellectual level while attempting to transmit the Arab/Muslim's natural identity and characteristics.

I know that the material is a bit heavy but I find it highly stimulating, especially when one considers the complexity of the issues it is addressing.

China's economic plan

2009-02-26T06:55:00.006-05:00

In addition to my previous blog on China-U.S. relations, David Dollar, a World Bank economist specializing in East Asian economics, provides his policy recommendations for the Chinese government during this economic crisis. Below is a round-up of his main points:

In the Asian crisis of 1997-98, China stimulated its economy with a lot of infrastructure projects aimed at bottlenecks in roads, seaports, airports and power. Now, there are no major bottlenecks in those areas, yet some local governments would love new projects, even if they have little future payoff. So, the challenge is keeping the stimulus program focused on legitimate future needs, not white elephants.

Another concern about the stimulus package is that it aims at limiting the damage in the industrial sectors. Of course, the government wants to avoid allowing those sectors to decline too rapidly. But over time one would want relative decline of industry and a shift in the growth model...

...China enters this crisis in excellent fiscal shape; hence it has huge potential to increase transfers through its minimum income support and other safety nets, build up health and education, and follow through on infrastructure projects. Hence, if growth continues to falter, my advice is, “think big” when it comes to government programs and spending this year...

...A second key task for China is to keep open its trade regime and look for opportunities to liberalize further. China’s merchandise trade is quite open compared to other developing countries, and through its World Trade Organization commitments, the country has taken initial steps to open service markets.

Many countries, particularly developing countries that rely on commodity exports to China will be watching and praying that the Chinese plan works.

U.S.-China economic relations

2009-02-21T07:13:00.012-05:00

Two giants, one world

The U.S. and China share the world's most important bilateral relationship. This relationship differs both in context and in style from the U.S.-Soviet relationship of the Cold War era. Washington-Moscow relations revolved around ideological competition, hard military confrontation and deep mistrust and hatred; Washington-Beijing relations are characterized by economic interdependency and shared interests in regional and global security issues. Nonetheless, the relationship is complex and is being made more so by the current global economic crisis.

We float together, we drawn together

China and the U.S. are so economical interdependent that any major economic policy shift by either country will surely affect the other. China's massive holdings of U.S. denominated assets are an increasing source of anxiety for both sides today. The Chinese media has accused the U.S. of unleashing a "financial tsunami" and a "financial WMD" on the international economy as a result of incompetent management of its financial sector. Many Americans for their part have long derided what they see as China's unfair manipulation of its currency.

Over two decades of export-led growth have dramatically improved China's economic power. The large foreign reserves that have been accumulated are a source of tremendous national pride and seen as symbolic of China's renaissance on the world stage. Beijing has assertively communicated to the U.S. that it expects its investments to be protected. The Chinese have gone so far as demanding official guarantees from the U.S. to safeguard the value of their US$ 682 billion Treasury bonds holdings.

An unsustainable situation

The reality is that the relationship between China and the U.S. is no longer sustainable for the world economy. The recycling formula whereby China would produce cheap goods for American consumers and channel the majority of its export earnings back into the U.S. economy is indirectly responsible for the abundant and cheap money supply in the U.S. that led to the housing and banking crisis.

It seems that Chinese authorities are well aware that they must put more emphasize on raising domestic demand and move away from their export-heavy strategy. In order to do this, China must strengthen the extent and quality of social service provisions to its citizenry in order to encourage more spending and less saving. China as a whole saves almost 50% of its income, which is previously unheard of during peace time.

Furthermore, China has to gradually raise the income of its people. This will need to be done by investing in more productive capital, investing heavily in education to make its population competitive in today's global economy and gradually allowing its currency to appreciate in order to strengthen the purchasing power of the Renminbi.

This kid is incredible!

2009-02-19T08:53:00.002-05:00

Football is a global game but it's rare to see this type of prodigy. This kid is simply unbelievable. He's ONLY 6 YEARS OLD!!!

See it to believe it!

Global Axioms

5000 yrs in 90 seconds

How to stimulate the economy? Decrease average penis size

A Dangerous Tie

Turkey's defense spending and procurement under the AKP

5 life lessons Economics can teach us

Multiculturalism in Canada: Mayor Nenshi debates Tarek Fatah on Al Jazeera English

Knowing How to Say NO

So you're from Niger? Oh wow, I've never met a.... *embarassing pause*

Open data goes south...and east?

Digital infrastructure and human rights

Facial Hair in Turkish Politics: A Tale of Moustaches and Men

Note to readers:

A Conflict of Extremes?

The Colors of Capitalism

It's Russia Time

Imam opens Texas Senate proceedings

Parliamentary Warfare

The iPad: the next technology for good governance?

An Experiment in Diplomatic Etiquette

The mother of all fear-mongering ads

The Politics of Contempt

Be (mainstream) political, be happy?

Turkey's Unstrategic Strategy

Is a reverse brain drain looming ?

Snacks for Thought: January 11, 2010

Referendum Ushers in Democratically Elected ... Colonial Rule?

Snacks for Thought: January 05, 2010

Underlying Problems in the Newest China-U.S. Steel Dispute

Islamic Calvinism

The National Security Council’s veil comes off

Snacks for Thought: December 23, 2009

Winds of change in the Middle East

GA on hold for a bit

What happened to Obama's pragmatism?

Guerrilla diplomacy in an increasingly complex international system

The end of GDP? Not quite but lets reconsider

Putin's indirect advice to Obama

Snacks for Thought: August 31, 2009

New article on American Foreign Policy

Knowledge and its discontents in the Islamic World

Slow on the blogging this month!!

China Cursed the Middle East

NATO PR Campaign

Snacks for Thought: July 21, 2009

Fly mighty eagle...fly...?

The French Revolution & Institutional Reforms

Economic overview of BRIC countries

Snacks for Thought: July 5, 2009

International relations, political economy and history from an unlikely source

Happy Canada Day!!

Snacks for Thought: June 28, 2009

It's time for a sensible policy towards Hamas

The unholy trinity: Iran, Afghanistan and the United States

A prelude to Iran-U.S. post

The lunch was missed, so was breakfast

Snacks for Thought: June 20, 2009

The energy powerhouse of the future? Bolivia?

Amidst the wreckage, a giant stands tall: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Genuises I tell you! Genuises!

Krauthammer's acceptance speech

Internet censorship and the good life

Snacks for Thought: June 12, 2009

Middle East press reactions to Obama's Cairo speech

The political undertones of Israel's military exercises

In Damascus

Snacks for Thought: May 20, 2009

Kosovo: what after independence?

Hats off to India!

Global Think Tank Directory

French Military Bases in Africa

Obama and the power of ideas: Part 2

Snacks for Thought, AfPak version: May 9, 2009

Obama and the power of ideas: part 1

The big debate: does the U.S. need an auto industry?

What is Swine Influenza?

In Lebanese politics, the more things change, the more they stay the same

Snacks for thought - April 25, 2009

U.S. Consul at Yeditepe University

Snacks for thought - April 20, 2009

So you're from Niger? Oh wow, I've never met a.... embarassing pause